Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:
SHORT-TERM: HOW AAPL ER AFFECTS THE TREND WILL HAVE TO SEE TOMORROW
The market retreated after the AAPL ER in AH, whether it affects the short-term trend, will have to see tomorrow. Basically, there’s no intraday lower low yet, so although bears may have some hopes but no optimistic yet. The only good news for bear is if regard today’s intraday high as the retest of the previous high, since bulls had tried twice and failed so now the market could try the opposite direction especially if bears could make a lower low tomorrow.
Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50) still is too high, see highlighted in red, choppy ahead at least.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, PIVOT DATE EITHER AROUND 10/22 OR 10/26 OR 11/04
Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view, the pivot date could be either around 10/22 or 10/26 or 11/04, see 10/15 Market Recap for more details. Below are summaries of all the arguments supporting my intermediate-term bearish view:
- As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
- As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
- As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
- As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.
- As mentioned in 10/11 Market Recap, VIX:VXV is too low and statistically VIX at 1 month low going into October was not a good sign.
- As mentioned in 10/15 Market Recap, US$ may rebound which is not good for the broad market.
SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE
For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- The market appears a little stretched as lots of ETFs weekly %B are way too high.
- With possible Euro pullback next week, watch potential weakness on commodity related ETFs like XLE, XLB and XIU.TO.
|NDX Weekly||NDX to SPX ratio too high. %B too high. Neither had any edges though.|
|IWM Weekly||%B too high.|
|CHINA||Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 3083. *Rejected by downtrend line, watch…|
|CHINA Weekly||Extremely high %B.|
|EEM Weekly||EEM to SPX ratio too high, %B too high. Neither had any edges though.|
|XIU.TO||*UP||TOADV MA(10) too high. Combining with weekly chart, pullback?|
|XIU.TO Weekly||Fib 61.8% plus %B too high with negative divergence.|
|TLT||DOWN||1-2-3 trend change? So TLT could be in an intermediate-term downtrend. Be careful.|
|FXE||LA||Bearish Engulfing, pullback? Combining with weekly chart, watch for possible trend reversal.|
|FXE Weekly||Stalled at Fib confluences area, %B too high with negative divergence, too high above MA(40).|
|GLD Weekly||%B too high.|
|GDX Weekly||GDX to SPX ratio too high, %B too high with negative divergence.|
|USO||*UP||Could be a Bull Flag in the forming.|
|XLE||UP||Hollow red bar plus filled black bar. Combining with weekly chart, pullback?|
|XLE Weekly||%B too high with negative divergence.|
|XLF Weekly||Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?|
|IYR Weekly||Home builders are lagging.|
|XLB||UP||Black bar, pullback?|
|XLB Weekly||%B too high with negative divergence.|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore offer no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list; UP/DOWN = Short-term trend; L A = Lateral Trend