11/11/2010 Market Recap: NATV to NYTV ratio is too high


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 4 of 4 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is CONFUSED 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is not clear. I hold partial short position overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to do so.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
11/04,11/14,11/26 11/06 : 11/07 Next pivot date: 11/04 – 11/08, 11/24 – 11/26
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 21 unfilled gaps, the max was 21.
10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): NYSI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
11/04 Market Recap: 41% of Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.
11/05 Market Recap: 70%+ chances SPX will close below 1225 on weekly chart within 2 weeks.
6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: SPX new high while NYMO is negative, topped?
6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish reversal day, so topped?
8.1.4 Normalized CPC: A little low.
*0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line breakout, top to be confirmed.
*0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Too high, so topped?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model 09/24 L 11/08 Low Stopped out on 11/09 with profit.
NYMO Sell   *Short if SPY tomorrow’s open > tomorrow’s close. The stop loss will be 2*ATR(10).
Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: MORE TOP SIGNS

I see one top sign and 2 suspicious top signs today, so maybe, probably, possibly, at least short-term, we could see more pullbacks and therefore the 2.5%+ pullback (ZigZag 2.5%+) mentioned in 11/08 Market Recap is still possible. My guess is that most of you would find very hard to believe this, judging from the sharp drop in visits from both my forum and this blog recently and judging from the AAII chart below. Well, let’s see.

AAIIBullish 

Begin with tomorrow first, I mentioned one bearish reason from tomorrow in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, well, here is another one: The ChiOsc is a little high, plus trend line as well as MA resistances so at least we could see some weakness tomorrow morning.

SPY60min 

Now, let’s talk about the top sign and the suspicious top signs added today. I’ve been mentioning some other top signs recently, I suggest you to review the table above one more time because these signs gradually weight more and more.

0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, this is the most important chart of today, see dashed red line (so you don’t need know why this chart should work), what happened thereafter when NATV:NYTV was too high?

NATVtoNYTVRatio 

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, this is a suspicious top sign because I’m not sure whether we’ve had an valid trend line and whether today we had an valid breakout. Well, whatever, if this chart keeps rising tomorrow, then better be careful because today’s ambiguity would be gone.

CPCEWatch 

The TED negative divergence reflects well the recent pullback reasons: All about the European sovereign debt crisis. Let’s see whether the 28 trading days are merely coincidences or not.

TED 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX MAY SHOOT HIGH THEN FALL BACK TO WHERE IT STARTS WHICH USUALLY IS THE 2ND BUY OPPORTUNITY

See 11/05 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: LAST 2 MONTHS OF YEAR ARE BULLISH

See 10/29 Market Recap for more details. Also below is the November seasonality chart from Sentimentrader, as requested.

Seasonality 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 10/15 L
NDX Weekly UP %B too high with negative divergence.
NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
NDX:SPX too high.
Too far away from MA(200) (PPO(1,40,1) too high).
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA 07/15 L
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM ChiOsc is too high.
EEM Weekly UP EEM:SPX too high.
XIU.TO 08/31 L TOADV MA(10) too high.
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT ChiOsc is too low.
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 10/29 L
GDX Weekly UP BPGDM too high, pullback?
USO WTIC breakout!
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L Complex Head and Shoulders Bottom or Double Bottom breakout, target $16.74.
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 11/02 L
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE overbought. XLB:SPX a little too high.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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