11/17/2010 Market Recap: VIX BB long setup triggered, but…


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is SELL 6 of 6 are *NEUTRAL The trend is down. I hold partial short position overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to do so.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
11/26 11/21 : 11/22 Next pivot date: 11/24 – 11/26
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks.
T2122 NYSE 4 week new high/low ratio is oversold relative to the recent history readings.
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
*6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered. There’s a potential validity problem though.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 21.
10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
11/12 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.
11/05 Market Recap: 70%+ chances SPX will close below 1225 on weekly chart within 2 weeks.
6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: SPX new high while NYMO is negative, topped?
6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish reversal day, so topped?
8.1.4 Normalized CPC: A little low.
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line breakout confirmed, so topped? 
0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Too high, so topped?
1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Descending Triangle, target $118.37.
11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high.
11/15 Market Recap: SPX down 3 consecutive days means lower close ahead.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model *Long if SPY up tomorrow, the stop loss is 1.9*ATR(10).
*There’s a potential validity problem though unless up huge tomorrow.
NYMO Sell 11/12 S Breakeven Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: VIX BB LONG SETUP TRIGGERED, BUT SPY ST MODEL MAY CHANGE INTO SELL MODE SOON

Reiterate 2 leg down pattern mention in 11/16 Market Recap, whether is the first leg down over, we’ll have to see tomorrow.

The VIX BB Long Setup mentioned yesterday was confirmed today, and also if paid attention to the table above about SPY ST Model, then you should’ve seen that a potential long setup could be triggered tomorrow. However, both are facing validity problem because the precondition for both is that SPY ST Model must be in buy mode. The problem now is if not huge up tomorrow, then very likely SPY ST Model will be in sell mode (maybe Friday). I don’t mean that you shouldn’t long, I just mean to provide info that you should be aware. At least for SPY ST Model long setup, the sell mode means close long position, in another word is if long confirmed tomorrow, there’s good chance that the day after tomorrow, I’ll ask you to close the long position. By the way, the SPY ST Model has over 80% winning rate and above 2 gain loss ratio since 2002, to this I mean the model is not a joke, I offer it for free but it doesn’t mean it’s a garbage.

VIXBBTradingSetupSPYSTModel   

Another thing I want you to know is, as promised, I said I’d keep reporting whatever institutions are doing. Well, here’s the most recent chart (courtesy of stocktiming, the chart is for yesterday's data). Looks to me, institutions are not very enthusiastic about the Quantitative Easing II, as the distribution now is even greater than accumulation.

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INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE FIRST 2.5%+ PULLBACK AFTER A 40+ STRAIGHT UP TRADING DAYS WAS USUALLY A BUY

See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, BULLISH FRIDAY, BULLISH THE WHOLE WEEK

See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.

For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 11/16 S
NDX Weekly UP NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM Island Reversal, target $69.75.
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful.
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 11/16 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT
TLT Weekly DOWN %B is a little too low.
FXE *3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): ChiOsc is way too high.
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 11/16 S Island Reversal, target $54.64.
GDX Weekly UP BPGDM and GDX:SPX both are too high. Pullback?
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP %B is too high with negative divergence.
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 11/16 S
XLB Weekly UP XLB:SPX a little too high.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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