11/18/2010 Market Recap: VIX to VXV ratio is a little low


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is *BUY, not confirmed though. 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL Uptrend not confirmed. I closed long, hold short overnight for a speculation play, not because it’s safe to do so.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
11/26 11/21 : 11/22 Next pivot date: 11/24 – 11/26
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks.
T2122 NYSE 4 week new high/low ratio is oversold relative to the recent history readings.
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered. There’s a potential validity problem though.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 21 unfilled gaps, the max was 21.
10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
*6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model *11/18 L 1.9*ATR(10) *There still is a validity problem unless up huge tomorrow.
NYMO Sell 11/12 S Breakeven Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: REITERATE THAT WE’LL SEE THE 2ND LEG DOWN

Reiterate 2 leg down pattern mention in 11/16 Market Recap. The first leg down was apparently over, now the question is how far the rebound can go? I have no idea except to wait and see. Purely from Fib perspective, Fib 61.8% at 11/15 highs is wroth watching.

SPY60min 

The biggest problem for bulls now is VIX to VXV ratio is a little low so likely the rebound wouldn’t go too far. Of course, a huge up day again tomorrow may change the story.

VIXtoVXVRatioWatch 

No other to say. SPY ST Model buy setup confirmed today so a enter long position should be entered today, however the validity problem still remains, unless huge up day again tomorrow, otherwise chances are good it will ask to close long the next Monday, so beware.

SPYSTModel 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE FIRST 2.5%+ PULLBACK AFTER A 40+ STRAIGHT UP TRADING DAYS WAS USUALLY A BUY

See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY, BULLISH FRIDAY, BULLISH THE WHOLE WEEK

See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.

For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 11/16 S
NDX Weekly UP NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful.
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 11/16 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT
TLT Weekly DOWN %B is a little too low.
FXE 3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): ChiOsc is way too high.
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 11/16 S
GDX Weekly UP BPGDM and GDX:SPX both are too high. Pullback?
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP %B is too high with negative divergence.
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 11/16 S
XLB Weekly UP XLB:SPX a little too high.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.