11/22/2010 Market Recap: Higher High Wanted


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY, not confirmed though. 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL Uptrend not confirmed. I hold no position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
11/26 11/21 : 11/22 Week 11/26 Next pivot date: 11/24 – 11/26
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks.
1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout? Target $122.63. Failed!
Stock Trader’s Almanac: 59% chances since 1988, buy Tuesday sell Friday in Thanksgiving week.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 21 unfilled gaps, the max was 21.
10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so top is close?
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC is too low, so top is close?
11/22 Market Recap: OEX put call ratio surges, so top is close?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model 11/18 L 1.9*ATR(10) *Close long entered on 11/18 tomorrow.
*Short if SPY tomorrow open > tomorrow close, the stop loss is 1.9*
ATR(10).
NYMO Sell 11/12 S *11/22 High *Adjust stop loss.
Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: HIGHER HIGH NEEDED TO CONFIRM 1-2-3 TREND CHANGE FROM DOWN TO UP

Last Friday and today, bears tried twice but couldn't push down the market, a general pattern in this case, the market will try the opposite, which in another word means the the low could already be in. But bulls need a higher high tomorrow to confirm the 1-2-3 trend change from down to up.

SPY60min 

Whether we’ll see a higher high tomorrow is hard to say. Although it FEELs very bullish but evidences remain bear friendly, not solid though. Anyway, let’s see tomorrow, I think bulls need a little luck:

  1. Huge gap down open, then better not to expect the market to rebound huge like what happened in the past 2 days because the 3rd time is the charm.
  2. Huge gap up open, then it’ll be the SPY’s 22nd unfilled gaps (see 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps). How long can this gap last is hard to say.
  3. As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, CPC <= 0.80, 81% chances a red day tomorrow.
  4. Interestingly, the next day after a very 1st VIX black bar (the 2nd black bar immediately after the 1st black was actually bullish) was not very pleasant recently.

VIXBlackBar 

Another thing worth blah blah today is the OEX Put Call ratio surged to an extremely high level. Chart below highlighted in red, are all cases from all the history I have when OEX Put Call Ratio > 2.8. Among them, 5 out of 6 cases were not far away from an intermediate-term top. Well, the cases are too few, so for info only, let’s wait and see.

OEXPutCallRatioOEXPutCallRatioAbove28

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE FIRST 2.5%+ PULLBACK AFTER A 40+ STRAIGHT UP TRADING DAYS WAS USUALLY A BUY

See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: 59% CHANCES, BUY TUESDAY SELL FRIDAY COULD BE A WINNING TRAD IN THANKSGIVING WEEK SINCE 1988

See 11/19 Market Recap for more details.

For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 11/16 S
NDX Weekly UP NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful.
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 11/16 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT *Black bar under MA(20), doesn’t look good.
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 11/16 S
GDX Weekly UP
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP %B is too high with negative divergence.
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 11/16 S
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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