SHORT-TERM: HIGHER HIGH NEEDED TO CONFIRM 1-2-3 TREND CHANGE FROM DOWN TO UP
Last Friday and today, bears tried twice but couldn't push down the market, a general pattern in this case, the market will try the opposite, which in another word means the the low could already be in. But bulls need a higher high tomorrow to confirm the 1-2-3 trend change from down to up.
Whether we’ll see a higher high tomorrow is hard to say. Although it FEELs very bullish but evidences remain bear friendly, not solid though. Anyway, let’s see tomorrow, I think bulls need a little luck:
- Huge gap down open, then better not to expect the market to rebound huge like what happened in the past 2 days because the 3rd time is the charm.
- Huge gap up open, then it’ll be the SPY’s 22nd unfilled gaps (see 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps). How long can this gap last is hard to say.
- As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, CPC <= 0.80, 81% chances a red day tomorrow.
- Interestingly, the next day after a very 1st VIX black bar (the 2nd black bar immediately after the 1st black was actually bullish) was not very pleasant recently.
Another thing worth blah blah today is the OEX Put Call ratio surged to an extremely high level. Chart below highlighted in red, are all cases from all the history I have when OEX Put Call Ratio > 2.8. Among them, 5 out of 6 cases were not far away from an intermediate-term top. Well, the cases are too few, so for info only, let’s wait and see.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE FIRST 2.5%+ PULLBACK AFTER A 40+ STRAIGHT UP TRADING DAYS WAS USUALLY A BUY
See 11/12 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: 59% CHANCES, BUY TUESDAY SELL FRIDAY COULD BE A WINNING TRAD IN THANKSGIVING WEEK SINCE 1988
See 11/19 Market Recap for more details.
For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
|Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful.
|*Black bar under MA(20), doesn’t look good.
|%B is too high with negative divergence.
|Home builders are lagging.
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.