11/23/2010 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Downtrend?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is SELL, not confirmed though. 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold partial short overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to do so.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
11/26 11/21 : 11/22 Week 11/26 Next pivot date: 11/24 – 11/26
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks.
1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout? Target $122.63. Failed!
Stock Trader’s Almanac: 59% chances since 1988, buy Tuesday sell Friday in Thanksgiving week.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 21.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so top is close?
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC is too low, so top is close?
11/22 Market Recap: OEX put call ratio surges, so top is close?
*6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch: 2 MDD within 5 days means more pullback ahead?
*11/23 Market Recap: SPX down 1.4%+ but ISEE Equities Only Index > 200 means more pullbacks.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model *11/23 S 1.9*ATR(10) *Closed long entered on 11/18 with loss. 
*Entered short on 11/23
.
NYMO Sell 11/12 S 11/19 High *Adjust stop loss (should be 11/19 high, yesterday report was wrong).
Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE LOWER LOW TOMORROW

My guess is the pullback isn’t over yet. Most likely we’ll see a lower low (below today’s low) tomorrow before rebound (if any).

Why isn’t pullback over?

Because from 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), I see Symmetrical Triangle or Pennant, and relative the previous several rebounds, this time is much weaker, so chances are good that there’s at least one more push down tomorrow.

SPY60min 

Because today is a Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 9), which according to the chart below (count red dashed lines), 73% chances we’ll see a lower low tomorrow.

ImmediateLowerLowGuaranteed 

Because although SPX was down 1.4%+ today but ISEE Equities Only Index closed above 200 which means retailers were very brave in buying the dips. The chart below highlighted in red are all the similar cases in the past. With no exception, there’s a lower low the next day. Also, from the chart we can see, 7 out 9 times, more pullbacks ahead on the intermediate-term basis, either after rebound or continue down.

BigDownDayWhileISEEEquitiesOnlyIndexSpiked 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 2 MAJOR DISTRIBUTION DAYS WITIN 5 DAYS MEANS MORE PULLBACKS AHEAD

The intermediate-term is in danger of entering a downtrend. The chart pattern, however, hasn’t confirmed yet, so pay attention to the word I use here: “in danger of”. As for reasons, table above has listed a lot, while I consider today’s evidences as the confirmation of all those listed reasons:

  1. SPY ST Model now formally enters into sell mode. A short position has been initiated.
  2. Two Major Distribution Days within five trading days, see chart below, although a rebound could be in the short-term but chances are very high that an intermediate-term downtrend has started.

DoubleMDDWithin5Days 

SEASONALITY: 59% CHANCES, BUY TUESDAY SELL FRIDAY COULD BE A WINNING TRAD IN THANKSGIVING WEEK SINCE 1988

See 11/19 Market Recap for more details.

For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 11/16 S
NDX Weekly UP NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful.
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 11/16 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT *Double black bar testing MA(20), doesn’t look good.
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 11/16 S
GDX Weekly UP
USO *3 hollow red bar on support, rebound?
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP %B is too high with negative divergence.
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 11/16 S
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.