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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE LOWER LOW TOMORROW
My guess is the pullback isn’t over yet. Most likely we’ll see a lower low (below today’s low) tomorrow before rebound (if any).
Why isn’t pullback over?
Because from 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), I see Symmetrical Triangle or Pennant, and relative the previous several rebounds, this time is much weaker, so chances are good that there’s at least one more push down tomorrow.
Because today is a Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 9), which according to the chart below (count red dashed lines), 73% chances we’ll see a lower low tomorrow.
Because although SPX was down 1.4%+ today but ISEE Equities Only Index closed above 200 which means retailers were very brave in buying the dips. The chart below highlighted in red are all the similar cases in the past. With no exception, there’s a lower low the next day. Also, from the chart we can see, 7 out 9 times, more pullbacks ahead on the intermediate-term basis, either after rebound or continue down.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 2 MAJOR DISTRIBUTION DAYS WITIN 5 DAYS MEANS MORE PULLBACKS AHEAD
The intermediate-term is in danger of entering a downtrend. The chart pattern, however, hasn’t confirmed yet, so pay attention to the word I use here: “in danger of”. As for reasons, table above has listed a lot, while I consider today’s evidences as the confirmation of all those listed reasons:
- SPY ST Model now formally enters into sell mode. A short position has been initiated.
- Two Major Distribution Days within five trading days, see chart below, although a rebound could be in the short-term but chances are very high that an intermediate-term downtrend has started.
SEASONALITY: 59% CHANCES, BUY TUESDAY SELL FRIDAY COULD BE A WINNING TRAD IN THANKSGIVING WEEK SINCE 1988
See 11/19 Market Recap for more details.
For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|NDX Weekly||UP||NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.|
|CHINA||Big red bar means more pullbacks ahead, so be careful.|
|TLT||*Double black bar testing MA(20), doesn’t look good.|
|USO||*3 hollow red bar on support, rebound?|
|XLE Weekly||UP||%B is too high with negative divergence.|
|IYR Weekly||UP||Home builders are lagging.|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.