11/30/2010 Market Recap: Stuck in a Range


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is CONFUSED 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold both long and short overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
11/26,12/02 12/05 : 12/07 Week 11/26 Next pivot date: 11/24 – 11/26, 12/03 – 12/06
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks.
Stock Trader’s Almanac: 59% chances since 1988, buy Tuesday sell Friday in Thanksgiving week.
0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily): Open above BB top then formed a Dark Cloud Cover, bullish short-term.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 21.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
11/22 Market Recap: OEX put call ratio surges, so top is close?
6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch: 2 MDD within 5 days means more pullback ahead?
11/23 Market Recap: SPX down 1.4%+ but ISEE Equities Only Index > 200 means more pullbacks.
11/24 Market Recap: MAD right after MDD means rebound then a 2nd leg down.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model 11/23 S 1.9*ATR(10)
NYMO Sell 11/12 S *11/26 High *Adjust stop loss. Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: IN A RANGE, DIRECTION NOT CLEAR

Nothing to say today, the market stuck in a range, so let’s wait for the breakout. I have no idea which direction it’ll break eventually, purely from the chart, however, bears have a little bit edges. If SPX 1173 gets tested again tomorrow, better not hope it’d hold because the 3rd time is the charm.

SPXDaily 

Also, see chart below, although we can count 2 legs down, but the 2nd leg isn’t perfect, especially because it has no lower low so there’s no NYMO positive divergence yet. I don’t mean to imply there’d be a lower low, just info only as purely form “perfect image perspective” the 2nd leg down may not appear completed.

2LegDown 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 2 MAJOR DISTRIBUTION DAYS WITIN 5 DAYS MEANS MORE PULLBACKS AHEAD

The intermediate-term is in danger of entering a downtrend. See 11/23 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEARISH, WEDNESDAY (12/01) BULLISH, WHOLE WEEK BEARISH

See 11/26 Market Recap for more details. For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 11/16 S
NDX Weekly UP NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP IWM:SPX too high.
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM *Hollow red bar on trend line, so rebound?
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 11/16 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT *Black bar, pullback?
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 11/16 S
GDX Weekly UP
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 11/16 S
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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