12/02/2010 Market Recap: Wave 5 Up To SPX 1300+?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are *BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold partial long position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
12/02 12/05 : 12/07 Week 11/26 Next pivot date: 12/03 – 12/06
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks.
Stock Trader’s Almanac: 59% chances since 1988, buy Tuesday sell Friday in Thanksgiving week.
0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily): Open above BB top then formed a Dark Cloud Cover, bullish short-term.
6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 MAD within 5 days means a tradable bottom at least.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max is 22.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
11/22 Market Recap: OEX put call ratio surges, so top is close? Reading very low now, no longer applies.
6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch: 2 MDD within 5 days means more pullback ahead?
11/23 Market Recap: SPX down 1.4%+ but ISEE Equities Only Index > 200 means more pullbacks.
11/24 Market Recap: MAD right after MDD means rebound then a 2nd leg down.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model 11/23 S 1.9*ATR(10) *Stopped out on 12/02 with losses.
NYMO Sell 11/12 S 11/26 High Stopped out flat on 12/01. Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, NEED WATCH THE CRAZY ISEE EQUITIES ONLY INDEX CLOSELY

Two points for your consideration:

  1. The follow through today is very very strong which normally can only be seen at an important bottom, so about the 2 possibilities mentioned in 12/01 Market Recap, now wave 5 up to SPX 1300+ has much higher odds.
  2. ISEE Equities Only Index still is very crazy (see 12/01 Market Recap for the past record), today’s reading at 296 is the 3rd record high, so we need watch this index closely. This crazy index readings perhaps is the bear’s best hope.

StrongFollowThroughRecordHighISEEEquitiesOnlyIndexReadings2010

Tomorrow is again the famous Non Farm Payroll day, I’d like your attention for two points as well:

  1. Generally bullish.
  2. General intraday pattern is open high closes lower or open low closes higher. (The intraday chart below is courtesy of Bespoke)

NFPDayWatch 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, NEED WATCH THE CRAZY ISEE EQUITIES ONLY INDEX CLOSELY

No new update, see short-term session above.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEARISH, WEDNESDAY (12/01) BULLISH, WHOLE WEEK BEARISH

See 11/26 Market Recap for more details. For November seasonality chart please refer to 11/11 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ *12/02 L
NDX Weekly UP NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP IWM:SPX too high.
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO *12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX *12/02 L
GDX Weekly UP
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L *ChiOsc is a little too high.
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 12/01 L *ChiOsc is a little too high.
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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