12/07/2010 Market Recap: Double Doom?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold no position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
12/02,12/09,12/11 12/05 : 12/07 Week 11/26, 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/03 – 12/06, 12/09 – 12/11
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks.
6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 MAD within 5 days means a tradable bottom at least.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max is 22.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
11/12 Market Recap: Smart/Dump money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model 11/23 S 1.9*ATR(10) Stopped out on 12/02 with losses.
NYMO Sell 11/12 S 11/26 High Stopped out flat on 12/01. Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: THERE’S A CHANCE THE MARKET MAY PULLBACK FROM HERE, NOT SURE THOUGH

Two reversal like bars formed on the SPY daily chart, so if this was the pre-YES-WE-CAN-age then chances were very good we’d see pullback at least for the short-term. Now because of POMO and YES WE CAN, multiple reversal bars setup didn’t work well, so the only thing I can say here is: Let’s wait and see. Basically, still as mentioned in 12/03 Market Recap, if bear wants a revenge, it’s now or never.

SPYShortTermVIXDaily 

I hope you still remember the “Double Doom” I mentioned in 12/03 Market Recap. Well, what I worried at that time happened today: SPX higher high while INDU not. Again whether it means what it’s used to mean, we’ll have to wait and see.

INDULeadsMarket 

By the way, if you feel what I blah blah everyday is way too complicated, either you can simply follow the SPY ST Model (Now is in buy mode but with no long position initiated yet), or reference what position I hold overnight in the short-term session of the table above – whenever I hold both long and short overnight then chances are good that the trend is in transition mode, so it’s probably a good idea to reduce the current position; Whenever I hold long or short overnight then trend must be very clear, in most cases you can just follow me to long or short as I really don’t think always bet against a 84%+ winning rate model is a good idea. Now, for example, even I’ve been blah blah about “bear’s revenge now or never”, but clearly I’m not short, right? No matter what evidences say, if price action doesn’t confirm, charge against the current trend is very risky, I want to make this very clear.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH BUT NEED SEE HOW MARKET BREAKOUT ABOVE SPX 1227

Temporarily maintain a bullish view for the intermediate-term, need see how the market breakout above SPX 1227 though. Right now the biggest problem is ISEE Equities Only Index is way too crazy. See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

SEASONALITY: DECEMBER HAS BEEN BULLISH

See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 12/02 L
NDX Weekly UP NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal but oversold now.
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT *Test the previous low so there’re some chances TLT may be bottomed here.
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE ChiOsc is way too high.
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD *Bearish Engulfing rejected at the previous high. Be careful.
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 12/02 L *Bearish Engulfing.
GDX Weekly UP
USO *Bearish Engulfing, all the recent pullbacks started with Bearish Engulfing, be careful.
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L *Bearish Engulfing.
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 12/01 L ChiOsc is way too high.
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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