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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE PUSH UP
1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming so most likely there’s at least one more push up ahead. Especially if we see another huge gap up tomorrow morning, better not to hope the gap would get filled again because that’ll be the 3rd time the market gapped up huge recently and usually the rule is the 3rd time is the charm.
For others, as all of you would have already guessed – yes, more bearish extremes. Especially on ISEE Index, now not only the ISEE Equities Only Index is very extreme, ISEE Index itself hit a new high since the March 2009 bottom. The chart below highlighted in red are all the cases since then when ISEE Index > 180. Should be clear what happened thereafter, shouldn’t it?
Another thing worth mentioning is the Smart/Dumb Money Confidence Spread from Sentimentrader hit new high. I’ve mentioned this extreme in the table above awhile ago, well, today we reached a new extreme level.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH BUT NEED SEE HOW MARKET BREAKOUT ABOVE SPX 1227
Temporarily maintain a bullish view for the intermediate-term, need see how the market breakout above SPX 1227 though. Right now the biggest problem is ISEE Equities Only Index is way too crazy. See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.
SEASONALITY: DECEMBER HAS BEEN BULLISH
See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
| SIGNAL | COMMENT | |
| QQQQ | 12/02 L | |
| NDX Weekly | UP | NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal but oversold now. |
| IWM | ||
| IWM Weekly | UP | |
| CHINA | Could be a Bear Flag in the forming. | |
| CHINA Weekly | UP | |
| EEM | ||
| EEM Weekly | UP | |
| XIU.TO | 12/02 L | |
| XIU.TO Weekly | UP | |
| TLT | Test the previous low so there’re some chances TLT may be bottomed here. | |
| TLT Weekly | DOWN | |
| FXE | ||
| FXE Weekly | DOWN | |
| GLD | ||
| GLD Weekly | UP | |
| GDX | 12/02 L | |
| GDX Weekly | UP | |
| USO | Bearish Engulfing plus channel resistance, could see more pullbacks. | |
| WTIC Weekly | UP | |
| XLE | 06/15 L | |
| XLE Weekly | UP | |
| XLF | 10/15 L | |
| XLF Weekly | UP | |
| IYR | Could be a Bear Flag in the forming. | |
| IYR Weekly | UP | Home builders are lagging. |
| XLB | 12/01 L | |
| XLB Weekly | UP |
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.