12/09/2010 Market Recap: One More Push Up?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold no position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
12/02,12/09,12/11 12/05 : 12/07 Week 11/26, 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/03 – 12/06, 12/09 – 12/11
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
11/12 Market Recap: 77% chances the 11/05 high will be revisited in 3 weeks.
6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 MAD within 5 days means a tradable bottom at least.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max is 22.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
*12/09 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close?
12/08 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model 11/23 S 1.9*ATR(10) Stopped out on 12/02 with loss.
NYMO Sell *12/09 S 2*ATR(10) *Short initiated on 12/09. Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE PUSH UP

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming so most likely there’s at least one more push up ahead. Especially if we see another huge gap up tomorrow morning, better not to hope the gap would get filled again because that’ll be the 3rd time the market gapped up huge recently and usually the rule is the 3rd time is the charm.

SPY60min 

For others, as all of you would have already guessed – yes, more bearish extremes. Especially on ISEE Index, now not only the ISEE Equities Only Index is very extreme, ISEE Index itself hit a new high since the March 2009 bottom. The chart below highlighted in red are all the cases since then when ISEE Index > 180. Should be clear what happened thereafter, shouldn’t it?

ISEEIndex 

Another thing worth mentioning is the Smart/Dumb Money Confidence Spread from Sentimentrader hit new high. I’ve mentioned this extreme in the table above awhile ago, well, today we reached a new extreme level.

SmartDumbMoneyConfidence 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH BUT NEED SEE HOW MARKET BREAKOUT ABOVE SPX 1227

Temporarily maintain a bullish view for the intermediate-term, need see how the market breakout above SPX 1227 though. Right now the biggest problem is ISEE Equities Only Index is way too crazy. See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

SEASONALITY: DECEMBER HAS BEEN BULLISH

See 12/03 Market Recap for more detail.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 12/02 L
NDX Weekly UP NASI STO(5,3,3) sell signal but oversold now.
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT Test the previous low so there’re some chances TLT may be bottomed here.
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE  
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 12/02 L
GDX Weekly UP
USO Bearish Engulfing plus channel resistance, could see more pullbacks.
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 12/01 L
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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