12/13/2010 Market Recap: Not As Strong As It Feels


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold trapped long position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
12/09,12/11 12/05 : 12/07 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/09 – 12/11
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 MAD within 5 days means a tradable bottom at least.
1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Ascending Triangle breakout, target $125.61.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 23 unfilled gaps, the max is 23.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
12/10 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close?
12/10 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.
*
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
*8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long.
NYMO Sell 12/09 S 2*ATR(10) Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

The market is not as strong as it feels because although multiple indices hit new high today but the NYSE Intraday Cumulative Tick showed great sell pressure which is very rare. Considering all the bearish extremes I’ve been blah blah recently, I think it’s time to be careful now.

IntradayCumTICK

Whether we’ll see a short-term pullback which lasts for a few days, we’d know as early as tomorrow because tomorrow is FOMC which is generally bullish but if it closes in red, then it’d be a bad sign.

FOMCWatch

For others, I bet you’ve already known – yes, more bearish extremes. As mentioned in the weekend report, all those bearish extremes would work eventually, the result would be a pullback similar to that of November or even April. The problem is it’s very difficult to timing so I’ll just keep piling up those bearish extremes in the table above.

0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch, when both CPC and CPCE are extremely low, a top could be very close.

ExtremePutCallRatioWatch

8.1.4 Normalized CPC, it’s just MACD(10,200,1) on CPC so as to eliminate different bases during different period. The chart is arguing for a top now.

NormalizedCPC

8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010, ISEE Equities Only Index closed large than 260 again. Retailers are simply way too bullish.

RecordISEEEquitiesOnlyIndexReadings

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, THERE’S MORE BULLISH COUNT, BUT I DON’T BELIEVE THAT FOR NOW

See 12/10 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, FRIRDAY AND THE WHOLE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK

See 12/10 Market Recap for more details.

See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 12/02 L
NDX Weekly UP NASI STO(5,3,3) oversold and buy signal.
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT Test the previous low so there’re some chances TLT may be bottomed here.
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE *3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): ChiOsc too low.
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 12/02 L
GDX Weekly UP
USO Bearish Engulfing plus channel resistance, could see more pullbacks.
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 12/01 L
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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