12/14/2010 Market Recap: Hindenburg Omen


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold trapped long position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
12/09,12/11 12/05 : 12/07 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/09 – 12/11
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 MAD within 5 days means a tradable bottom at least.
1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Ascending Triangle breakout, target $125.61.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 22 unfilled gaps, the max was 23.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
12/10 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: 2nd record high, top is close?
12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped?
*
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen to be confirmed.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long.
NYMO Sell 12/09 S 2*ATR(10) Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: THE TOP COULD BE IN

Although the market closed in green eventually, but my guess is we may see more pullbacks ahead. Except the 83% bear winning rate mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, chart pattern wise, it looks like a typical 1-2-3 trend change pattern, so there’re good chances that a short-term top was in. As for the pullback target, if indeed, a general pattern should be around the November highs at least.

SPY60min

Indicator At Extremes from Sentimentrader, just an update, the spread now at the April highs if not above.

IndicatorsAtExtremes

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: HINDENBURG OMEN COULD HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED, NEED THE 2ND SIGNAL TO CONFIRM THOUGH

I know as soon as you see the title “Hindenburg Omen”, your first reflection is because everyone is “talking about the omen so it won’t work”. In fact even before it’s confirmed to be triggered, someone in my forum has already stated so (Yeah, whenever I say something I always have proof, LOL). Anyway, my task is to tell you there’s something here and there, that’s it. Charts below are all the recent cases when Hindenburg Omen was triggered. And personally I don’t think the August Omen was a failure because it’s not a short-term signal so whether it works or not we still have to wait and see.

HindenburgOmenNowHindenburgOmen2008

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, FRIRDAY AND THE WHOLE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK

See 12/10 Market Recap for more details.

See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ *12/14 S
NDX Weekly UP NASI STO(5,3,3) oversold and buy signal.
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE 3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): ChiOsc too low.
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 12/02 L
GDX Weekly UP
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 12/01 L
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.