12/21/2010 Market Recap: CPCE Top Signal Confirmed


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 4 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL I hold partial long position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
12/21,12/27 12/21 : 12/22 12/26 Next pivot date: 12/21, 12/27
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish.
11/05 Market Recap: SPX daily bar completely out of BB may mean bulls are safe till the year end.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 23 unfilled gaps, the max is 23.
10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
12/14 Market Recap: Too many Sentimentrader’s indicators are at bearish extremes.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
8.1.4 Normalized CPC: Too low, so topped?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE trend line broken, so topped?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long.
NYMO Sell 12/09 S 2*ATR(10) Reference only, not meant to be followed.

SHORT-TERM: CPCE TOP SIGNAL CONFIRMED

No more excuse, the breakout yesterday is confirmed today, so according to the Measured Move, the SPX could go as far as 1291. Personally, I don’t believe this target, however, no matter how many reliable bearish signals, as long as the price action doesn’t confirm, being a bear is a dangerous job, so let’s just wait and see (and in addition I give bear my most sincere moral support). The bottom line, as I said before, whenever you see me “has to” hold both long and short overnight (see short-term session in the table above), it’s probably the time at least to reduce the long position.

SPX60min

Nothing else to say. The CPCE top signal mentioned yesterday is confirmed. At the current stage, I really don’t know if it works or not (Sorry, I know I’m not supposed to comment like this. Well, considering the comment as extra credit for the top signal, if you like). Purely from seasonality point of view, until the year end, only 2 days have some hopes for bears, the 12/23 and the 12/31.

CPCEWatch

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

See 12/17 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 12/03 Market Recap for December seasonality chart.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ *12/21 L
NDX Weekly UP  
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 12/02 L
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 12/17 S
GDX Weekly UP
USO Could be a Pennant in the forming, so more push up?
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 12/01 L
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
  3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  6. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  7. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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