01/05/2011 Market Recap: Bull Flag?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/05-01/07 01/04 : 01/06 Next pivot date: 01/07
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 24 unfilled gaps, the max is 24.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually?
*
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped? Failed!
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP.  I hold no position overnight.
MY STRATEGY:  STOCK BOND EURO OIL GOLD
Long but I will be very careful here. Long Long Long

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE ON THE UPSIDE

As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, the intraday pattern looks like a Bull Flag, so chances are good that we may see more on the upside.

SPY15min

For bears, every time the market pulls back then rebounds to test the previous high, there’s a chance that it could be a pivot point. Now plus the RSI negative divergence and the ChiOsc a little high and the time resistance mentioned yesterday, so bear may still have some chances. Well, I really want to say here is now both bear and bull are equally carry high risk, so trade with caution.

SPY60min

The last chart I want to show you is yet again the ISEE Equities Only Index closed above 300 which is way too bullish. Well, I know you’re already numbed about such a such so called extremes, LOL.

ISEEEquitiesOnlyIndex

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, JANUARY’S 1ST 5 DAYS IS AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

See 12/31 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ *01/05 S
NDX Weekly UP  
IWM  
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds.
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 12/02 L TOADV MA(10) a little too high.
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT Breakout, so TLT could be bottomed. Need watch the trend line resistance though.
TLT Weekly UP
FXE 3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): 1-2-3 trend change, so dollar could be topped.
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 12/17 S Watch for potential 1-2-3 trend change. If GDX topped then be careful about gold itself.
GDX Weekly UP
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 12/01 L
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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