01/13/2011 Market Recap: The Tale of INTC ER


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/05-01/07 01/04 : 01/06 Next pivot date: 01/07
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 25 unfilled gaps, the max is 25.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually?
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down).
8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January.
01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good.
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
01/07 Market Recap: SPX weekly price volume negative divergence means negative ahead.
01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign.
01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model Buy mode doesn’t mean long, a 2nd buy signal is needed to enter long.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP.  I hold no position overnight.
My Thoughts A correction is just a matter of time, but until price confirms, I prefer long to short, with caution though.

SHORT-TERM: INTC ER COULD BE A PIVOT POINT

The tale today is INTC ER, so far from AH, it looks great, but statistically (courtesy of Bespoke), it means sell at open tomorrow.

INTCER

Also as illustrated in the chart below, INTC ER was more likely the pivot point for the broad market.

INTCERPivotPoint

The statistics below is from Sentimentrader, which I think fits for our current situation. Looks like the following couple of weeks are not so great. Especially, now the seasonality says the same thing, click the link to see chart 8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010, with no exception, from the 8th trading day of the year until end of the January, QQQQ performance was bad.

QQQQ Performance When Intel Reports

And QQQQ Is Within 2% Of A 1-Year High

Date

Two Weeks

Later

Max

Loss

Max

Gain

04/13/99 -1.6% -10.7% 4.7%
07/13/99 -1.9% -5.9% 4.2%
10/12/99 -2.8% -9.1% 0.1%
01/13/00 -1.7% -8.5% 7.0%
07/15/03 -2.6% -5.1% 0.7%
10/14/03 -0.0% -5.2% 1.5%
01/14/04 -2.7% -3.7% 2.4%
01/17/06 -1.3% -3.8% 0.3%
04/19/06 -1.9% -3.2% 0.5%
01/16/07 -2.7% -4.4% 0.0%
04/17/07 2.8% -1.0% 3.4%
07/17/07 -4.6% -6.5% 0.9%
10/16/07 4.1% -1.7% 4.2%
10/13/09 -2.8% -3.0% 2.9%
01/14/10 -7.8% -8.1% 0.5%
Average -2.1% -5.0% 2.2%

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

See 01/07 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 12/31 Market Recap for the January seasonality chart.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/10 L
NDX Weekly UP
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP Should have set the trend to down from up but I’ll see how the market rebounds.
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful.
TLT Breakout, so TLT could be bottomed. Need watch the trend line resistance though.
TLT Weekly UP
FXE
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 12/17 S 1-2-3 trend change confirmed, so GDX could be topped. Be careful about gold itself.
GDX Weekly UP
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP Home builders are lagging.
XLB 01/06 S
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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