01/20/2011 Market Recap: CPCE Top Signal Confirmed


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/19,01/26 01/19 : 01/20 Next pivot date: 01/19
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 24 unfilled gaps, the max was 25.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually?
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Too low, so topped?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Both CPC and CPCE are low, so topped?
6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down).
8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January.
01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good.
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
01/07 Market Recap: SPX weekly price volume negative divergence, 71% chances SPX < 1271 in 2 weeks.
01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign.
01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Too high above MA(200).
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
6.2.2a VIX Trading Signals (BB): Short setup triggered on 01/18.
*0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model Long triggered on 01/14, flatted out on 01/19, no chance to follow though.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is DOWN.  I hold both long and short overnight.
My Thoughts *Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started, it looks like so though.

SHORT-TERM: THE REBOUND TODAY IS MORE LIKELY TO FAIL

The rebound today stopped right at Fib 50%, so it’s very hard to say whether the rebound was over or there’s more, need see tomorrow. Basically, I believe the rebound eventually would fail and at least the today’s low will be tested. The reasoning is, besides the general pattern, you Earth people (remember, I’m from Mars?) always like to try twice before trying the opposite side, the ChiOsc on SPY 60 min chart is way too high which means at least an intraday pullback.

SPY15min

Nothing else to say, whether the 01/18 highs is the high, bears at least need show us a 1-2-3 Trend Change pattern. So far, I don’t see one, so again, we’ll have to wait. From all the bearish signals piled up in the table above, chances that 01/18 highs is the high are fairly high, especially today we have yet another reliable top signal confirmed: 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals. The 3 point validated trend line was broken yesterday, but given the lesson I learnt last time, I didn’t blah blah yesterday. But today, no doubt, it’s a clear breakout, so I believe the top signal is valid and confirmed. Well, let’s see if it works or not this time.

CPCEWatch

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD BE WAVE 5 UP TO SPX 1300+, PIVOT TOP COULD BE AROUND 01/05 TO 01/12

The price and time target I’ve been blah blah for the intermediate-term has finally been met, although the time target seems a little too early but let’s give it another week to see whether the forecast is good or bad. See 01/14 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY, HORRIBLE WHOLE WEEK

See 01/14 Market Recap for more details. Also see 12/31 Market Recap for the January seasonality chart.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ *01/20 S
NDX Weekly UP Too far away from MA(200) and BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly *DOWN
EEM *Testing major trend line. Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful.
TLT 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly UP
FXE
FXE Weekly DOWN
GLD 1-2-3 trend change, wait for further confirm, GLD may fall into a downtrend.
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 12/17 S 1-2-3 trend change confirmed, so GDX could be topped. Be careful about gold itself.
GDX Weekly DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 06/15 L *Testing major trend line and MA(20).
XLE Weekly UP Too far away from MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR *Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 01/19 S *Testing major trend line and MA(50).
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on weekly chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on weekly chart.
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