01/28/2011 Market Recap: No Lower Low Yet


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are *SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU new high, so SPX will follow?
*6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Watch for potential buy signal.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 24 unfilled gaps, the max was 26.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC(30) >= 9, topped? (Due to Quantitative Easing, I’m not sure if it still works)
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: INDU had a lower low, so SPX might follow eventually?
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen confirmed.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high, so topped?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
6.5.1b SPX and NFP: Red NFP day means the trend will turn (down). Failed!
8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January.
01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good.
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
01/10 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days in a row was a bad sign. Failed!
01/10 Market Recap: INDU down Friday and the following Monday was a bad sign.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Trend line broken, so topped?
01/21 Market Recap: INDU up 8 weeks in a row, could mean a red next week.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI is way too high, could mean a top of some kind.
*4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model Long triggered on 01/14, flatted out on 01/19, no chance to follow though.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is *DOWN. I hold partial short position over the weekend.
My Thoughts Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started, looks like though.

SHORT-TERM: DAILY CHART DOESN’T LOOK GOOD BUT SO FAR NO LOWER LOW YET

Three points for your attention:

  • The daily chart looks ugly, which according to my “N vs N rule”, bears scored one more, so the uptrend is definitely weakening. However, so far no lower low yet, therefore still no 1-2-3 trend change (see SPY 60 min chart next) as I’ve been blah blah, so strictly speaking, it’s now too early to declare a bear victory yet.

NvsN

  • The down momentum shown on Friday was just too strong that bulls even had no chance to establish a Bear Flag at least (you ever see a flag pointing downside?), so if the invincible POMO hasn’t changed the inertia commonly existing on the planet Earth yet then there should be one more leg down at least to test the 01/20 lows.

SPY60min

  • VIX rose more than 18% on Friday, since year 1999, this’d mean a rebound the next Monday or Tuesday, most likely Tuesday as according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the first trading day in February, Dow and SPX up 7 of last 8.

VIXOneDaySurgeWatch

Lastly, just a reminder, 6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB), it’s a potential buy setup. So, by the way, again, although bears do see some hopes but whether the hope could eventually turn into a reality is still hard to say.

VIXBBBuySignal

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/28 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN

Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased because of the 2 charts below:

4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals, weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34). Well, such a big spread was nothing in 90s by the way, so don’t read into it too much.

WeeklyEMASpread

4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, SPX Bullish Percent Index is till way too high.

BPSPXWeekly

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ *01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly DOWN
EEM *ChiOsc is little too low.
EEM Weekly *DOWN
XIU.TO 01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly ?
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly DOWN *STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX 12/17 S
GDX Weekly DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly *? *The rebound is strong, so not sure about downtrend anymore.
XLE 01/25 S
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 01/19 S
XLB Weekly DOWN BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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