01/31/2011 Market Recap: Just a Rebound


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Watch for potential buy signal.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 25 unfilled gaps, the max was 26.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January.
01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good.
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model Long triggered on 01/14, flatted out on 01/19, no chance to follow though.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is DOWN. I hold short position overnight.
My Thoughts Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started, looks like though.

SHORT-TERM: SO FAR, JUST A REBOUND

Two cents:

  1. Still no lower low, so bear must be patient. If, however, consider today’s high as a lower high then bears need only breakdown below the Friday’s low to form the 1-2-3 trend change pattern. A real 1-2-3 trend change pattern is better to breakdown below 01/20 lows though.
  2. For now, I’ll define today’s action as “Just a Rebound”. The reasoning still is normally a strong down momentum like what we saw last Friday should at least have 2 legs down therefore at least the Friday’s lows are very likely being retested.

SPY60min

Now, let me explain what I’ll be closely watching the next: As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, since tomorrow is the first trading day in February so chances are good it’d be very very bullish, but for bears, according to “N vs N” rule, as long as bulls couldn’t make a new high until the day after tomorrow or even the day after the day after tomorrow, then by definition, this still is a sellable bounce therefore no need to worry. Of course, if tomorrow bulls make a hug white Marubozo and a new high, then no argue, bears AGAIN have no hope. Well, pay attention to this AGAIN. Life on Earth is just so amazing that rich guys get 100B free money every week so that at least we small guys could have a soup of some kind to sup. Just please don’t complain about this 100B a week free money that is not for you but you must payback until your grand-grand-children, a Chinese saying, a guy who’s satisfied with whatever he currently has is the happiest guy, so be happy about the soup if indeed the next few days turn out to be so, OK?

NvsN

Institutions Buying and Selling Trending from StockTiming as requested.

instbsell

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/28 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN

Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased, see 01/28 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly DOWN
EEM ChiOsc is little too low.
EEM Weekly DOWN
XIU.TO 01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly ?
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly DOWN STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX 12/17 S
GDX Weekly DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly *UP
XLE 01/25 S
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 01/19 S
XLB Weekly DOWN BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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