02/01/2011 Market Recap: The Next Price and Time Target and Bear’s Last Hope


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are *BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
*6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered.
BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 26 unfilled gaps, the max is 26.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
8.2.9c QQQQ – 2002 to 8.2.9k QQQQ – 2010: Poor QQQQ performance until the end of January.
01/07 Market Recap: Seasonality wise the rest of January isn’t good.
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model *Long if pullback to 02/01 SPY mid price around $130.18 or below but still above $127.12. The buy signal was triggered on 02/01 intraday, but since I cannot give an intraday signal so has to wait for the pullback before entering a long position. The stop loss would be 1.9*ATR(10).
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is *UP. I hold partial long position overnight.
My Thoughts Not sure if the much anticipated correction has started, looks like though.

SHORT-TERM: THE NEXT PRICE TARGET IS SPX 1314 AND PIVOT DATE AROUND 02/07, BEAR’S BEST BET IS THE VERY HIGH NYADV READINGS

As mentioned yesterday, if only a big white Marubozo to new high today then bears would have no hopes AGAIN. Even the market starts to drop sharply tomorrow (which odds are low), going through a complete 1-2-3 trend change procedure takes several days at least and during the procedure, the back test of the previous high is almost guaranteed, so at least short-term bulls are safe.

SPY60min

The chart below is my best guess for the next price and time target. About the time target, in addition to all the coincidences given on the chart, the Non Farm Payroll (on 02/04) is more likely a pivot day, so the bear’s best bet might have to be the next week.

TimeAndPriceAnalysis

The chart below shows the bear’s last hope (as far as I can see). Although on a longer history (see 6.4.1b Extreme NYADV Readings Watch), today’s NYADV readings are nothing, but still purely from what happened recently, bear may have some edges if we see a small bar tomorrow. If however, another big white Marubozo tomorrow, then chances are very high that the intermediate-term target is no way around 1300 anymore. For this case, we’ll talk about tomorrow if indeed a big while Marubozo.

NYADVWatch

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/28 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN

Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased, see 01/28 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly DOWN
EEM ChiOsc is little too low.
EEM Weekly DOWN
XIU.TO 01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly ?
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly DOWN STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX 12/17 S
GDX Weekly DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 01/25 S
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB *02/01 L
XLB Weekly DOWN BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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