02/02/2011 Market Recap: Bull Flag?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB): Buy setup triggered.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 26 unfilled gaps, the max is 26.
12/20 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb money confidence spread too high.
8.2.7b Record High ISEE Equities Only Index Readings 2010: Record high, top is close?
12/31 Market Recap: Lowest ATR(10) readings in 13 years, so topped?
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model 02/01 L Breakeven *Since the breakeven stop loss has been set, so no chance to follow this setup as the setup will no longer be valid if breakdown below 02/01 SPY mid price at $130.18.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold long position overnight, slightly underwater.
My Thoughts *Clueless as ALWAYS.

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A BULL FLAG IN THE FORMING, SO ONE MORE PUSH UP AHEAD

Don’t know if because of the snow storm the market today feels like a holiday, so I’ll skip today’s After Bell Quick Summary. The intraday chart looks like a bull Flag or Pennant or Descending Triangle in the forming, especially the consolidation is right on the previous resistance (now support) which should be a bullish pattern. Two cents:

  1. Still, as mentioned yesterday, a strong up like what happened on 02/01 seldom has only one leg, so chances are good that we’ll see another leg up.
  2. If the market drops sharply tomorrow indicating that there’s no more leg up which mirrors the last Friday’s merely one leg down (normally should be 2 legs down), then be careful about the reversal of reversal of reversal pattern commonly seen on an important top.

SPY60min

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE, WHETHER THE 01/28 HIGHS IS THE WAVE 5 HIGH REMAINS TO BE SEEN

Intermediate-term still in wait and see mode, temporarily bearish biased, see 01/28 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, first day trading in February, Dow and S&P up 7 of last 8, NASDAQ up 6 years in a row.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly DOWN
EEM ChiOsc is little too low.
EEM Weekly DOWN
XIU.TO 01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Symmetrical Triangle? So bond should keep falling?
TLT Weekly ?
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly DOWN STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX 12/17 S
GDX Weekly DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 01/25 S
XLE Weekly UP
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/01 L
XLB Weekly DOWN BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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