02/08/2011 Market Recap: Bearish Rising Wedge?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
01/26,02/04 02/02 : 02/04 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 01/26,02/04
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 27 unfilled gaps, the max is 27.
01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200).
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model 02/01 L Breakeven On 02/03, stopped out of long position entered on 02/01 flat.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold no position overnight.
My Thoughts I see no reason to short but am not convinced yet this is the primary 3 of 3 to much much higher.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD

Still not much to say today, so I’ll skip today’s After Bell Quick Summary. For short-term model, I did nothing today anyway.

I see a possible Bearish Rising Wedge on the SPY 60 min chart. My guess is your first reflection would be, come on, give me a break! Well, let’s see, after all, this Rising Wedge looks perfect to me (3 points validated).

SPY60min

I’m bearish biased toward tomorrow at least don’t expect a big up day for 2 reasons:

  • TICK closed above 1000, so most likely a small green or red day the next day.

2

  • INDU up 7 days in a row, statistics shows the gain loss ratio is above 10 in addition to the 78% winning rate, if you short at today’s close and cover at the very first down day since 1999.

1

I posted the most recent Institutional Buying and Selling Trending chart from StockTiming this morning. A friend asked why I think the chart is bearish? Well, the chart below shows a longer history (by combining an old chart together), should be clear that a divergence usually forms prior to the price correction while now the divergence is by far the biggest one. So I think the info given by the chart is bearish and I’ll temporarily maintain what I mentioned in 02/04 Market Recap: 2.5%+ pullback within 2 weeks or never where the 2.5%+ pullback stands a little better chances.

3

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW WITHIN 2 WEEKS

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT WEEK FOR NASDAQ, FEBRUARY SEASONALITY IS GENERALLY NOT BULLISH

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly DOWN
CHINA
CHINA Weekly DOWN
EEM
EEM Weekly DOWN
XIU.TO 02/04 L TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly DOWN STO is way too oversold, led to a rebound the last 2 times.
GDX 02/03 L
GDX Weekly DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE *02/08 L
XLE Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/01 L
XLB Weekly DOWN BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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