02/11/2011 Market Recap: Key Week the Next Week


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
02/10-/13,02/20 02/18 : 02/19 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 02/20
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428.
BEARISH 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200).
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model *02/11 L 1.9*ATR(10) *Enter long on any pullback to around SPY 02/11 mid price ($132.53) but still above 02/04 lows. I cannot give intraday signal, so have to buy the next pullback for this trade.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold partial long position over the weekend.
My Thoughts *I’m almost convinced that this could be a primary 3 of 3 up to much much higher.

SHORT-TERM: PRICE ACTION ARGUES FOR MORE UPSIDE, BEAR’S BEST BET IS TIME RESISTANCE

The bottom line, now looks like it’s even a luxury to hope a 2.5%+ pullback from high to low, as chances are good that the market may continue up from here especially if we see a bullish follow-through either the next Monday or Tuesday. The bear’s best bet is the time resistance, if indeed there’s a reversal, then also it’s either the next Monday or Tuesday. Considering the fact that trading is art not science, so let’s allow both bulls and bears a few more days, say the whole week the next week to see who stands last.

As mentioned in 02/10 Market Recap, if we’re still on Earth, then the law of inertia should always apply, so a strong up momentum like INDU up 8 consecutive days shouldn’t simply reverse sharply down all of sudden. In the Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary, I also mentioned, the Friday’s up doesn’t look like a follow though to the Thursday’s red day, therefore excludes the 5 out of 9 immediately 2.5%+ pullbacks cases shown on chart below. Instead, chances are that INDU may continue up from here and so will the other indices, especially if the next Monday or Tuesday could have a decent up (to follow-through the Friday’s up).

INDUUp7ConsecutiveDays

Now, let’s see bear’s best bet as interestingly enough multiple time resistances confluences from this Friday until the beginning of the next week.

  • Firstly, it’s the max to 61 trading days without 2.5%+ pullback threshold mentioned in 02/04 Market Recap. We’re now on the 60th trading day.

NoCorrection

  • Also as mentioned in 02/04 Market Recap, since the March 2009, all the major rallies have lasted max to 54 trading days and we’re now on the 52th trading day of the current rally. Besides, the chart below also shows 2 major cycles due from 02/11 to 02/13 and in addition, statistically, day 11 and 14 of each month since year 2000 are one of most likely pivot days.

TimeAnalysis

The last but not the least, here’s the latest poll for how many bears still standing from my forum, for fun only because you may argue that the choices are not fair for bears. LOL. Again, the poll is in Chinese but I happens to know some English.

Poll

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW THE NEXT WEEK

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH THE NEXT MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. First trading day of February Expiration week Dow down 4 of last 6.
  2. Day before Presidents Day weekend, S&P Down 16 of last 19.
  3. February Expiration day, Dow down 7 of last 11.

The seasonality surrounding Presidents Day below is from Sentimentrader.

holiday_presidents

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP BPNDX is way too overbought. Too far above MA(200).
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly DOWN
EEM
EEM Weekly DOWN
XIU.TO 02/04 L TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE *Watch for possible 1-2-3 trend change to down from up.
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly DOWN
GDX 02/03 L
GDX Weekly DOWN
USO
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 02/09 S
XLE Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/09 S
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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