02/15/2011 Market Recap: Just a Pullback?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
02/10-/13,02/20 02/18 : 02/19 02/13,02/19 Next pivot date: 02/20
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428.
BEARISH 01/07 Market Recap: Strong Off-Season means poor Earning Season.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: BPSPX is way too overbought.
4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Price is now too high above MA(200).
02/14 Market Recap: Smart/Dumb Money Confidence spread is too large.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model 02/11 L breakeven *Stopped out long position on 02/15 flat. I think I need to update the model to avoid this kind of cases happening again and again.
Short-term N/A N/A Trend is UP. I hold long position overnight, slightly underwater.
My Thoughts I’m almost convinced that this could be a primary 3 of 3 up to much much higher.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND TOMORROW

All I wanted to say are already in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, since the price overlaps so it doesn’t look like a big correction has started. And according to the Presidents day seasonality chart below below, tomorrow could most likely close in green, plus for 5 consecutive gap down days, bears still couldn’t push bulls down the hill, so chances are better and better that bulls may counter-strike. All in all, my guess is at least yesterday’s high will be retested tomorrow.

SPY15min
holiday_presidents

On a little bit longer than tomorrow, I’ll temporarily maintain the forecast for calling the week the key week as mentioned in 02/11 Market Recap. The chart below, according to Schaeffer, says that hedge fund bought lots of index put therefore is in accumulation mode, so it’s bullish. But personally, I think the red line has reached a level that cannot be sustained, so although it does mean bullish for now but it also implies that the rally could already be in its final stage. Of course, I’m not sure if this final stage means this week. Trading wise, it doesn’t matter to me though, as whenever the short-term model begins to happily hold short position overnight (pay attention to “happily”, it’s not when I say “Hold trapped short position overnight”), it’s most likely the time the real pullback has started because the model simply follows the market (therefore couldn’t be too wrong).

1

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: WHETHER THIS IS PRIMARY 3 OF 3 TO GALAXY FAR FAR AWAY WE MAY KNOW THIS WEEK

See 02/04 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

See 02/11 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP BPNDX is way too overbought. Too far above MA(200).
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly *UP? *No higher low yet but the rebound is so strong so could be in uptrend now.
EEM
EEM Weekly DOWN
XIU.TO 02/04 L TOADV MA(10) is a little too high, all led to a pullback of some kind recently.
XIU.TO Weekly UP
TLT
TLT Weekly DOWN
FXE Watch for possible 1-2-3 trend change to down from up.
FXE Weekly UP
GLD
GLD Weekly DOWN
GDX 02/03 L
GDX Weekly DOWN
USO *ChiOsc is way too low.
WTIC Weekly UP
XLE 02/09 S
XLE Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly UP Testing resistance which also is multiple Fib confluences area.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/09 S
XLB Weekly UP BPMATE is way too overbought.
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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