02/23/2011 After Bell Quick Summary


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The bottom line, the short-term trend is down. I hold partial short position overnight.

No idea about tomorrow, VIX surge more than 18% yesterday and SPX down again today, long at close and sell tomorrow, doesn’t show much edge since year 1991. If you simply hold the long until the very first green day, then the winning rate is much better but the draw down could be terrible, so again, tough to call. I don’t feel good about the chart pattern though, could miss one final leg to test today’s low which I’ll discuss in tonight’s report (not sure about this part either).

VIXSurgeBackTestSummary

Demo account for short-term model, $200 max loss allowed per trade. Mechanical trading signal, for fun only.

TICKER Entry Date Entry Price Share Stop Loss Exit Date Exit Price Profit Comment
SDS 02/22/2011 $21.05 300 $20.62  
SDS 02/22/2011 $21.05 200 $20.62 02/22/2011 $21.55 100.00 Partial profit.
SSO 02/17/2011 $54.05 200 $53.26 02/17/2011 $54.49 88.00  
SSO 02/16/2011 $54.08 300 $53.78 02/16/2011 $54.28 60.00  
SSO 02/15/2011 $53.68 100 $52.18 02/16/2011 $53.95 27.00 Target met.
SSO 02/11/2011 $52.87 100 $52.18 02/16/2011 $53.86 99.00 Too nervous, shouldn’t close this.
SSO 02/11/2011 $52.87 100 $51.78 02/11/2011 $53.36 49.00 Partial profit to lock SDS losses.
SDS 02/10/2011 $21.68 500 $21.27 02/11/2011 $21.29 -195.00  
SSO 02/09/2011 $52.91 200 $51.84 02/10/2011 $53.03 24.00  
SSO 02/07/2011 $52.67 400 $52.10 02/07/2011 $52.84 68.00 Rare case for low risk entry.
SSO 02/04/2011 $51.78 200 $50.81 02/04/2011 $51.98 40.00  
SSO 02/02/2011 $51.72 200 $50.69 02/03/2011 $51.86 28.00  
SSO 02/01/2011 $51.03 50 $51.23 02/02/2011 $51.62 29.50  
SSO 02/01/2011 $51.03 50 $49.23 02/01/2011 $51.46 21.50 Partial profit to lock SDS losses.
SDS 01/31/2011 $22.77 300 $22.09 02/01/2011 $22.09 -204.00  
JAN 415.00  
SUM 650.00  
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