03/04/2011 Market Recap: Trend is up, may not be so bright in the intermediate-term


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 4 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06, (02/20 pivot top to be confirmed)
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short. Short if for aggressive traders only.
ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat.
Short-term UP 02/18 High
02/24 Low
Hold both long and short. This means the trend is unclear so wait.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE NEW HIGH SOON

The bottom line, trend is up both short-term and intermediate-term. Why? Because so far despite the volatility, there’s not even a lower low on the intraday chart yet. Considering the statistics given by 02/23 Market Recap and 03/01 Market Recap, plus what I’ll mention in the intermediate-term session below that ISEE Equities Only Index closed above 200 while SPX down 0.7%+ could mean a bullish next few days, so I’ll temporarily maintain the forecast that we could see a new high soon.

SPY15min

4.1.3 Volatility Index (Weekly), could be bullish for stocks, because 2 weekly Doji looks bearish (for VIX).

VIXWeekly

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT

There’re several evidences supporting my view for a bullish short-term while have a doubt about the intermediate-term. Again and again, I don’t mean you should short as speculation is merely a speculation until price confirms, for now the trend is clearly up, no doubt.

The very unique thing on Friday is while the market was down sharply but retailers were buying dips like crazy which can be seen from ISEE Equities Only Index that closed astonishingly above 275. Buy SPY at the Friday close and sell the next Monday, seems bullish while not very pleasant if hold for 2 weeks.

ISEEAbove200OnSPYDownDay

Another unique thing on Friday is while retailers were buying calls like crazy, big guys put OEX like crazy causing OEX put call ratio to spike AGAIN. The bearish bias for such kind of high OEX put/call ratio is not very clear at least recently but if you take a look at the OEX Open Interest Ratio, then the intermediate-term could be choppy and eventually there would be a sharp pullback.

OEXPCOpenInterestRatio

Besides, the Friday Non Farm Payroll day, especially a red day usually have some chances to be a pivot point which in our case means around an intermediate-term top.

NFP

Time analysis wise, except the New Moon and Solar Term date (see table above), once again we’re in the time window called Magic Day 6  which could also mean a pivot day around.

GannDay

The last but not the least, maybe beyond the TA discussion and doesn’t count as the evidence for calling not so bright intermediate-term. Just curious, as I find very hard to imagine that when SPX goes back to all time high, how high the commodity would go? The statistics below is from Bespoke, sure, YES WE CAN is capable of anything so joke only, as history won’t repeat this time or will it?

SPXandCommodity
OilSurgeStatistics

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly *UP?
XIU.TO 02/04 L
XIU.TO Weekly UP *Too far above MA(200).
TLT Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly ?
FXE
FXE Weekly UP *Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 02/03 L
GDX Weekly UP
USO *ChiOsc is way too high.
WTIC Weekly UP *Too far above BB top.
XLE *03/04 L
XLE Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly ? Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/09 S
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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