03/09/2011 Market Recap: Two Inside Bars


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 4 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/05-03/09 03/04 : 03/06 Next pivot date: 03/06, (02/20 pivot top to be confirmed)
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Cup with Handle, target 1428.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/04 Market Recap: OEX put/call ratio too high, could be choppy ahead.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A 02/23: Close long and sell short. Short if for aggressive traders only.
ST Model 02/25 L Breakeven Stopped out long position on 03/01 flat.
Short-term UP? 02/18 High Hold short, but the trend is unclear so wait.

SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION NOT CLEAR, A LITTLE BULLISH BIASED THOUGH

Still nothing to say. SPY is still inside a Symmetrical Triangle therefore the direction is unclear, a little bullish biased though because Symmetrical Triangle usually means a continuation which in the current case means continue up. A 2 inside bars pattern has been formed which also means indecision. However, as those inside bars act like a depressed spring therefore the breakout on either side would be very powerful, so no matter you’re bull or bear, just don’t get too aggressive now.

1

By the way, the reason I’m cautious about saying that “the SPY Symmetrical Triangle means continue higher” is because VIX too has formed a Symmetrical Triangle which if means continue higher then SPY should go lower. So again, at the current stage, the direction is not clear, we’d better wait.

2

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT

See 03/04 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/28 S
NDX Weekly UP
IWM
IWM Weekly UP
CHINA
CHINA Weekly UP
EEM
EEM Weekly UP?
XIU.TO *03/09 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
TLT Could be a channel breakout, trend may about to change.
TLT Weekly ?
FXE
FXE Weekly UP Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD
GLD Weekly UP
GDX 02/03 L
GDX Weekly UP
USO ChiOsc is way too high.
WTIC Weekly UP Too far above BB top.
XLE 03/04 L
XLE Weekly UP Too far above MA(200).
XLF 10/15 L
XLF Weekly ? Small lower low wait for follow through to confirm the trend change.
IYR
IYR Weekly UP
XLB 02/09 S
XLB Weekly UP
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  4. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 08/31 L, for example, means Long on 08/31.
  5. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when I see at least one higher high and higher low on daily chart.
  6. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when I see at least one lower high and lower low on daily chart.
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