03/17/2011 Market Recap: Bull Flag?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are *NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
03/12,03/16-03/21 03/19 : 03/21 Next pivot date: 03/21
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.
03/01 Market Recap: Bearish Engulfing is very bullish in 2 to 4 weeks.
03/10 Market Recap: Price overlaps so the pullback may not go far.
0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: A few short-term long setup triggered on 03/16.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/04 Market Recap: OEX open interest ratio too high, could be choppy ahead.
03/16 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 02/24 S N/A Short is for aggressive traders only.
ST Model   Sell mode means downtrend. The model needs 2nd signal to open a short position.
Short-term DOWN 03/11 High I hold short position overnight, slightly underwater.

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A BULL FLAG IN THE FORMING TARGET AT $130.21

Nothing to say today, could be a Bull Flag in the forming so according to the Measured Move, the rebound target could go as high as $130.21. I’m not sure though because I have no other evidences supporting this. Trading wise, the game is still to sell the bounce.

1

Some may mention 6.2.0a VIX Trading Signals (ENV Buy) and 6.2.2b VIX Trading Signal (BB Buy), well, possibly, but to me, because the SPY ST Model is now in sell mode, so the buy setup is no longer valid based on the past statistics. Well, anyway, YMYD.

2

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: COULD NOT BE VERY BRIGHT BUT STATISTICALLY BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

See 03/11 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday before March Triple Witching, Dow up 17 of last 23.
  2. March Triple Witching Day mixed last 10 years, Dow down 3 of last 4.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly UP
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly UP
EEM & Weekly DOWN
XIU & Weekly UP
TLT & Weekly UP
FXE & Weekly UP (weekly) Testing Fib confluences area.
GLD & Weekly UP
GDX & Weekly UP
USO & Weekly UP
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly UP
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly DOWN
DBA & Weekly DOWN
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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