SHORT-TERM: MORE PUSH UP AHEAD
- May see pullback tomorrow, not sure though. The more certain thing is the push up is not over yet, so trading wise, I’d at least buy the very first pullback.
- Maintain the forecast mentioned in 03/25 Market Recap that 03/16 low will eventually be tested. For now, I dare not say that the low will be tested before the new high anymore though.
Why more push up ahead? Because the rally today is large enough to invalidate the 3 push up pattern on SPX, so before a little bigger pullback is possible, the previous high (say today’s high, assuming SPX starts to pullback tomorrow) needs to be tested first. Then why a pullback maybe tomorrow? Because QQQ has fulfilled its 3 push up pattern so may pullback tomorrow therefore could drag down the SPX as well.
Another reason for calling more push up ahead is INDU has higher high again today, so expect SPX to follow soon. By the way, this also is the reason why I dare not say that the 03/16 low will be tested before the new high, because a little bit push up INDU will be at new high and so will SPX.
The chart below is another argument for calling a pullback tomorrow, not a solid one but interesting. Generally, each up swings should get weaker and weaker (as buyers become less and less while sellers become more and more). From the chart below, we can see:
- From 03/16 to 03/21, SPX rose 51 points in 3 days;
- From 03/23 to 03/25, SPX rose 35 points in 3 days;
- 35 / 51 = 0.68;
- From 03/29 to 03/30, SPX rose 26 points in 2 days;
- 26 / 35 = 0.74;
Where 0.74 has already exceeded the previous rate of 0.68, so my guess is, the high might have already been in today, so even SPX keeps up tomorrow, most likely there won’t be a higher high.
As for why maintain the forecast that 03/16 low will eventually be tested, the main reason still is 9 down vs 10 up, bulls lost, therefore by definition this still is a sellable bounce, which in another word is the 03/16 low is not THE BOTTOM.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS
SEASONALITY: BEARISH 03/31, BULLISH 04/01
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:
- Last trading day of March, Dow down 11 of last 16, Russell 2000 up 12 of last 16.
- Frist trading day in April, Dow up 13 of last 16.
See Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary for seasonality chart for the last 2 and the 1st trading days of the month.
For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|QQQQ&Weekly||DOWN||*NAADV MA(10) is way too high.|
|IWM & Weekly||UP|
|SSEC & Weekly||UP|
|EEM & Weekly||UP|
|XIU & Weekly||UP||TOADV MA(10) is way too high.|
|TLT & Weekly||UP|
|FXE & Weekly||UP|
|GLD & Weekly||UP|
|GDX & Weekly||*03/30 S|
|USO & Weekly||UP|
|XLE & Weekly||UP|
|XLF & Weekly||DOWN|
|IYR & Weekly||UP|
|XLB & Weekly||UP|
|DBA & Weekly||DOWN|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
- DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.