03/31/2011 Market Recap: Pennant


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 5 are *BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in *BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
04/07-04/11 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/04-04/13
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead.
03/25 Market Recap: VIX 18% below MA(10) is bearish in 5 days.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop *03/31 L N/A *Beware the winning rate for a trend following system is usually below 50%.
ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10) Stopped out of short position on 03/30 with loss.
Poor performance this year, working on better model, will replace this model soon.
Short-term UP 03/23 Low I hold partial long position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: MORE LIKELY A GREEN DAY TOMORROW

Three cents:

  1. Although the bullishness in my forum really scares me but I must admit that both statistics and chart pattern are arguing for a green day tomorrow.
  2. About Non Farm Payroll day tomorrow, it’s generally bullish and the intraday pattern usually is “opens high goes lower or opens low goes higher” which I’ve been blah blah every month for awhile, so please click this link to see the statistics yourself.
  3. Trading wise, the name of the game still is to buy dip.

Why green day tomorrow?

Both Pennant and Ascending Triangle are continuation patterns therefore the breakout is most likely on the upside.

SPY15min

The seasonality about tomorrow below is from Bespoke.

Seasonality

Non Farm Payroll day itself is generally bullish.

NFP

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH IN 3 TO 6 MONTHS

Combine the study mentioned in 02/23 Market Recap and 03/11 Market Recap, I still believe that 02/18 high will be revisited.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH 03/31, BULLISH 04/01

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Last trading day of March, Dow down 11 of last 16, Russell 2000 up 12 of last 16.
  2. Frist trading day in April, Dow up 13 of last 16.

See Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary for seasonality chart for the last 2 and the 1st trading days of the month.

For March seasonality chart please refer to 03/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly DOWN NAADV MA(10) is way too high.
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly UP
EEM & Weekly UP
XIU & Weekly UP TOADV MA(10) is way too high.
TLT & Weekly UP
FXE & Weekly UP
GLD & Weekly UP *Ascending Triangle, so may go higher from here.
GDX & Weekly 03/30 S
USO & Weekly UP *Ascending Triangle, so may go higher from here.
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly UP
DBA & Weekly DOWN
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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