04/06/2011 Market Recap: Could see some weakness ahead


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 5 of 5 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
04/11-04/15 04/03 : 04/05 04/04-04/13 Next pivot date: 04/11
BULLISH 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
02/23 Market Recap: Pullback could last 4 weeks, then 02/18 highs will be revisited.
03/11 Market Recap: Bullish in 3 to 6 months.
04/01 Market Recap: Bullish April.
BEARISH 4.0.1 SPX Long-term Trading Signals: Weekly EMA(13) is way too high above weekly EMA(34).
03/18 Market Recap: Could see lower low ahead.
My Thoughts The pullback since 02/22 may last but the 02/18 high will be revisited in 69 calendar days on average.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 03/31 L N/A Beware the winning rate is below 50%, it’s the gain/loss ratio that matters.
ST Model 03/22 S  1.9*ATR(10) Stopped out of short position on 03/30 with loss.
Poor performance this year, working on better model, will replace this one soon.
Short-term UP *03/30 Low I hold partial long position overnight.

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD

Two cents:

  1. Not sure if there’s one more push up to new high but I believe a little bit bigger pullback is due soon.
  2. Trading wise, the strategy is still to buy dip unless bears could show us some real strength.

The arguments for calling a pullback are not solid enough so that’s why I’m not sure if there still is one more push up ahead.

The chart below actually is more bearish than it appears. Except the possible Ending Diagonal Triangle mentioned in the After Bell Quick Summary, both RSI negative divergence and 3 push up pattern are actually more bearish signs.

SPY60min

T2122, NYSE 4 week new high/low ratio. It’s my ultimate weapon for detecting the overbought/oversold conditions. Although relative to the history, it’s not extreme enough but considering the fact that Russell 2000 is now at historical high therefore inevitably the new high could only be less and less (as more difficult to reach), thus chances for T2122 to reach a historical extreme become smaller and smaller, so the current reading should be high enough if not highest in the foreseeable future.

T2122

Take a look at what retailers are doing when at the same time, OEX option traders are buying huge amount of puts. ISEE Equities Only Index closed above 300 should be high enough within the top 5 readings of the ISEE history.

OEXPutCallRatio

The two additional charts below are about the intermediate-term, info only.

IIBearishPercentOEXOpenInterestRatio

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH APRIL, SPX TARGET 1352 TO 1381, BEWARE 04/11 TO 04/14 PIVOT DATE

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

SEASONALITY: APRIL HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY THE MOST BULLISH MONTH OF THE YEAR

See 04/01 Market Recap for more details.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND COMMENT
QQQQ&Weekly UP
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly UP Ascending Triangle, so may go higher from here.
EEM & Weekly UP
XIU & Weekly UP
TLT & Weekly UP
FXE & Weekly UP
GLD & Weekly UP
GDX & Weekly 04/05 L
USO & Weekly UP
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly DOWN
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly UP
DBA & Weekly DOWN
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  3. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  4. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.