The bottom line, the short-term trend is down. I hold both long (trapped) and short overnight.
Judging by how market closes, I guess we might see some weakness tomorrow morning at least. Statistics, however, favors a little little bit on the bull side as SPY has been down 5 days in a row, buy at today’s close, sell at tomorrow close, you’ll have 67% chances since year 2003. It’s not much edge especially if you have noticed that the drawdown is much bigger than the best gains.
If you consider SPX down 4 consecutive days then rebound 1 day like what happened today, buy at close then sell at close tomorrow, you’ll have only 43% chances since year 2003. So again, not much bull edges here.
Demo account for short-term model, $200 max loss allowed per trade. Mechanical trading signal, for fun only.
| TICKER | Entry Date | Entry Price | Share | Stop Loss | Exit Date | Exit Price | Profit | Comment |
| SDS | 04/13/2011 | $21.19 | 300 | $20.45 | New strategy, always hold. | |||
| SDS | 04/12/2011 | $21.30 | 200 | $20.45 | 04/13/2011 | $21.40 | 20.00 | |
| SSO | 04/11/2011 | $53.16 | 100 | $51.57 | Not sure, speculation play. | |||
| SDS | 04/11/2011 | $20.93 | 200 | $20.45 | 04/12/2011 | $21.34 | 82.00 | |
| SSO | 04/08/2011 | $53.47 | 100 | $51.57 | 04/11/2011 | $53.58 | 11.00 | |
| SDS | 04/07/2011 | $20.71 | 400 | $20.46 | 04/08/2011 | $20.86 | 60.00 | Against trend 1st time, half positioned. |
| SSO | 04/07/2011 | $54.35 | 100 | $53.09 | 04/08/2011 | $54.36 | 1.00 | |
| SSO | 04/06/2011 | $53.93 | 200 | $53.09 | 04/06/2011 | $54.13 | 40.00 | |
| SSO | 04/04/2011 | $53.74 | 100 | $53.09 | 04/08/2011 | $54.00 | 26.00 | |
| SSO | 04/01/2011 | $54.00 | 100 | $51.57 | 04/05/2011 | $54.18 | 18.00 | |
| SSO | 03/28/2011 | $52.02 | 100 | $49.91 | 04/01/2011 | $54.09 | 207.00 | |
| LAST | 1158.00 | |||||||
| SUM | 1623.00 |