05/02/2011 Market Outlook (Bearish Reversal Day)


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SHORT-TERM: NEW HIGH THEN MORE PULLBACK?

Canada election day today, need vote before 9:30pm ET, so no time to think carefully about all the evidences I’ve collected, sorry.

Three cents:

  1. Should be more new highs ahead but also good chances we’ll see a pullback that could last for a few days. My guess is new high first then more pullbacks.
  2. Still think Dollar was (or close to) bottomed, at least for a short-term.
  3. Trading wise, the name of the game still is to buy dip.

Why should be more new highs ahead? Because the RSI in chart 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min) hit new high again today. For detailed explanation please refer to 04/29 Market Outlook.

SPY60min

Why chances are good that we’ll see a pullback that could last for a few days? Because a bearish reversal bar is formed on the SPY daily chart. This kind of pattern WAS reliable, just it may take a few days before the real pullbacks and this is why I guess that we could see a new high first. Just a wild guess, not sure.

BearishReversalDay

Why was Dollar bottomed? Just take a look at what happened in the past when UUP volume surged.

UUPDaily

0.2.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume, I don’t know what’s going on here. Theoretically, it should mean that the market was bottomed. For the similar reason mentioned in the 04/29 Market Outlook, I’m not sure if it really means a bottom as I was not sure if it really meant a top on 04/29.

NATVtoNYTVRatio

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

See 04/27 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

See 04/29 Market Outlook for more details. For May seasonality day by day also see 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND CANDLESTICK COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP
IWM & Weekly UP Bearish Engulfing 
SSEC & Weekly DOWN Officially in downtrend now, be careful.
EEM & Weekly UP Black Bar
XIU & Weekly DOWN Doji
TLT & Weekly UP Hollow Red Bar *ChiOsc a little too high.
FXE & Weekly UP Black Bar 3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund: Volume surge, bottomed?
FXE is now too high above MA(200), see weekly chart.
GLD & Weekly UP Shooting Star  ChiOsc is way too high.
GDX & Weekly UP
USO & Weekly UP Shooting Star 
XLE & Weekly UP Dark Cloud Cover 
XLF & Weekly UP Outside bar Bear Flag?
IYR & Weekly UP Spinning Top 
XLB & Weekly UP Bearish Engulfing
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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