05/04/2011 Market Outlook (SPX Lower Close Ahead?)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: MAYBE TOPPED ON 05/02

Three cents:

  1. More pullbacks ahead.
  2. Still think Dollar at least should have a short-term rebound which also is one of the major reasons that I think more pullbacks ahead.
  3. Trading wise, I’ll sell the next bounce but with reduced positions, after all now officially the intermediate-term trend is till up.

Why more pullbacks ahead?

  • SPX down 3 days in a row usually means a lower close (than that of today’s) ahead, at least.

SPXDown3ConsecutiveDays

  • CPCE 3 points validated trend line, broken yesterday and held for today, therefore confirms the top was in.

CPCE

  • A bad news todays is the OEX Open Interest Ratio surged again.

OEXOpenInterestRatio

Why think Dollar at least should have a short-term rebound?

  • UUP volume keeps surging plus the hollow red bar today looks promising.

UUPDaily

  • FXE is too high above the MA(200). Nothing on the planet Earth is beyond the law of gravity, so too far away from a moving average is perhaps the most reliable TA signals.

FXEWeekly

  • The sentiment toward the Dollar is almost at the historical low.

USDSentiment

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

See 04/27 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

See 04/29 Market Outlook for more details. For May seasonality day by day also see 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND CANDLESTICK COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP Doji 
IWM & Weekly UP   *Testing trend line support.
SSEC & Weekly DOWN Officially in downtrend now, be careful.
EEM & Weekly UP
XIU & Weekly DOWN Hammer
TLT & Weekly UP *ChiOsc is way too high.
FXE & Weekly UP Bearish Reversal 3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund: Volume surge, bottomed?
FXE is now too high above
MA(200), see weekly chart.
GLD & Weekly UP
GDX & Weekly UP Doji  *Testing trend line support.
USO & Weekly UP
XLE & Weekly UP
XLF & Weekly UP Bearish Engulfing  Bear Flag?
IYR & Weekly UP
XLB & Weekly UP
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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