05/09/2011 Market Outlook (ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index Too High)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE MORE REBOUND FOR A FEW DAYS BUT 90% CHANCES THE WEEK WILL CLOSE IN RED

Nothing to say today. Maintain what I blah blah in 05/06 Market Outlook that we’ll see a short-term rebound but more sellings thereafter. Trading wise, if no huge up tomorrow, then stay in the bear camp may not be a bad idea.

Two unique things today I’d like your attention. Neither are bull friendly.

ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index < ISEE Equities Only Index AND ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index >= 100, sell short at close hold until the very first down day, you’ll have 74% chances since 2006 (when ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index was introduced). Noticed that winners took 1.8 bars on average so chances are good that we’ll see more rebound tomorrow while the day after tomorrow won’t be pleasant.

ISEEIndicesOnlyIndex

OEX Open Interest Ratio rose again. Not good.

OEXOpenInterestRatio

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

See 05/06 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, Monday after Mother’s Day, Dow up 12 of last 15.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful!
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly UP  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP ChiOsc is way too high. *2 Hollow Red Bars, so pullback?
FXE & Weekly UP 3.1.1 UUP Daily: Testing downtrend line, ChiOsc too high.
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN Too much damage done, so more down ahead.
XLE & Weekly DOWN
XLF & Weekly DOWN Confirmed Bear Flag breakdown, be careful.
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly UP  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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