05/11/2011 Market Outlook (OEX Open Interest Ratio New High Again)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: PULLBACK NOT OVER YET

Big movement today (although I was too focused on moving my giant plant around to notice the show as some of you already knew), but too bad, I have not much to say. 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min) doesn’t have lower low yet so strictly speaking the chart does not look bearish. However, considering the volume surge on 3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), so chances are high that the sell off on commodities is not over yet, therefore personally I’m more inclined to believe what I see is a Bear Flag or Rectangle, aka, more selling ahead.

SPY60minUUPDaily

 

Two things I’d like your attention today:

OEX Open Interest Ratio goes higher again. Almost near the all time high now. Looks more and more like that of year 2007, doesn’t it?

OEXOpenInterestRatio

0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield on the other hand are yelling for bottom now. The signal (for bottom calling) is very reliable (top calling may be 1 month earlier), please refer to 8.2.1a Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2001-2004 and 8.2.1b Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2005-2008 for the past accuracy. How do I personally read this? Well, the standard answer is: let’s wait and see as for a no biased TA (at least pretend to be no biased), never ever should I say “this time is different” no matter I really want to believe it or not.

TNXDaily

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

See 05/06 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, Monday after Mother’s Day, Dow up 12 of last 15.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP Weekly Bearish Engulfing, be careful!
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly UP  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
FXE & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly UP  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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