05/13/2011 Market Outlook (Symmetrical Triangle)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

No conclusion, let’s see next week.

  1. Could see some weakness on Monday morning (not sure) because the Friday close wasn’t strong, could be a small Bear Flag in the forming.
  2. But cannot exclude the possibility of yet another reversal of reversal of reversal of reversal, aka, a huge rally on the next Monday, because I see a Symmetrical Triangle on SPY chart and an Ascending Triangle on QQQ chart, neither are bearish.
  3. If the conclusion made on 05/06 Market Outlook is still valid then the next week should have 80% chances to close in red.

SPY60minSPYDaily

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

Two charts worth some attentions:

4.0.7a Collection of Leading Indicators I, never has the negative divergence been this huge, so there’re some possibilities that the intermediate-term is not bright.

LeadingIndicators

OEX Open Interest Ratio still is too high, looks very similar to year 2007.

OEXOpenInterestRatio

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  • Monday before May expiration, Dow up 19 of last 22, average gain 0.6%.
  • May expiration day, Dow down 12 of last 20, average loss 0.2%.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP Ascending Triangle or Rectangle, looks bullish.
IWM & Weekly UP  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly *DOWN *Double Top breakdown? Be careful. 
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
FXE & Weekly *DOWN  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly *DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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