05/18/2011 Market Outlook (Still is Bear Flag)


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SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE LITTLE BEARISH BIASED

QQQ still clearly looks like a Bear Flag to me so I think the rebound today is just a rebound, the pullback isn’t over yet.

QQQ60min

There’s another possibility, however, SPY daily chart looks still missing one more push up to form a so called 3 push up pattern, so it’s also possible that SPY would go directly from here to a new high. And therefore accordingly, trading wise, if another huge up day tomorrow, I’d be on the bull side.

3PushUp

The chart below illustrated the 3 push up followed by 2 legged down pattern. Now, it’s hard to judge whether the 2nd leg down is over but certainly we should be careful about the possible Bull Flag in the forming which if indeed, once the UUP pullback is over, it’d put pressure on the stock market again.

UUP60min

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  • Monday before May expiration, Dow up 19 of last 22, average gain 0.6%.
  • May expiration day, Dow down 12 of last 20, average loss 0.2%.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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