05/19/2011 Market Outlook (Symmetrical Triangle)


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SHORT-TERM: CLUELESS

No idea about the market direction, let’s see tomorrow. Up huge I’d be in bull camp while going down I’d stay with bears.

I see a Symmetrical Triangle formed on the SPY intraday chart, so could be one more push up tomorrow morning. I don’t expect the push up to be huge though because QQQ may have done its 3 push up and now is on the way to fulfill the 2 legged down pattern.

SPY15min

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH MONDAY, BEARISH FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  • Monday before May expiration, Dow up 19 of last 22, average gain 0.6%.
  • May expiration day, Dow down 12 of last 20, average loss 0.2%.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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