05/20/2011 Market Outlook (Just a little little bearish biased)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: A LITTLE BEARISH BIASED

Will temporary maintain bearish bias toward the next week because as mentioned in 05/20 Trading Signals, there’re chances that a Head and Shoulders Bottom could be in the forming, so if Monday gap up huge (like usual, didn’t we see this lots of times?) and goes sharply higher, it’d be enough to change my already-not-so-determined-bear-mind.

SPY60min

Why bearish biased toward the next week?

  • As mentioned in 05/06 Market Outlook, IWM Weekly Bearish Engulfing means bearish for the next 3 weeks. The next week is the 3rd week, so over 90% chances SPX at least will close below its 05/06 close at 1340. (SPX now is at 1333)
  • The week after a red OE week (that’s next week) was more likely red or at least have a lower low (in the SPX language means SPX will have a low that is lower than 1318).

RedOEWeek

  • Week before Memorial day was a little bearish biased according to Schaeffer.

WeeksSurroundingMemorialDay

UUP60min

I know some may say that SPX has been down 3 weeks in a row, so the chances for yet another red week should be much lower. Well, at least I don’t see so in the back test bellow. However if you buy at Friday’s close and hold until the very first green week, you’d have 71% chances, just in most cases turn off your computer may not be a very bad idea…

SPXDown3ConsecutiveWeeks

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly UP  
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP  
SSEC & Weekly DOWN *Too weak to even establish a Bear Flag, breakdown is more likely.
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN *Volume surge after constantly trending down, may pullback.
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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