05/23/2011 Market Outlook (Follow-Through Wanted)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: CRITICAL TIME, BULLS ARE NOT OVER YET

Three cents:

  • The pullback isn’t over yet but if bears cannot decisively breakdown today’s low, then be careful of bulls counter-strike. In another word, bulls are not over yet.
  • There’re 64% chances a green day tomorrow. The odds are close to random but still have a little little bullish edges.
  • Trading wise, the name of the game is to sell bounce.

Why aren’t bulls over yet? See chart below, if cannot drop much from here then it could be a 3 push down pattern formed therefore we’d see a 2 legged up from here which generally would be larger than the rebound from 05/17 to 05/19. Bears need not to worry for now though as it seems the pullback isn’t over yet, just the question is how much?

SPY60min

Why are 64% chances a green day tomorrow? See chart below, SPY open and close below its BB bottom since 2003 means bullish in the next 1 and 5 days.

SPYBodyOutOfBBBottom

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly UP  
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP *Could be a Double Top in the forming.
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN Volume surge after constantly trending down, may pullback.
USO & Weekly DOWN *Could be a Symmetrical Triangle on $WTIC, more likely to continue down.
XLE & Weekly DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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