05/24/2011 Market Outlook (Just a little bearish biased)


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SHORT-TERM: JUST A LITTLE BEARISH BIASED

No solid evidences today, my guess is chances are little bit higher on the downside. The argument is QQQ, IWM and RSP all had a lower low today. These indices usually lead. Besides, chart pattern wise, the pullback before the close looks like the very first down leg of at least a 2 legged down, so at least we’ll see some weaknesses tomorrow morning.

SPY15min

The back test below also shows a little bearish edges. Definitely not a good one, just I really couldn’t find anything else to blah blah. ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index < 30, short at today’s close, cover on the very first down day, you’ll have 70% chances since March 2009 bull market. In another word, the back test tells us that there’re 70% chances SPY will have a lower close ahead.

ExtremeLowISEEIdicesOnlyIndex

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly UP  
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP Could be a Double Top in the forming.
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN Could be a Symmetrical Triangle on $WTIC, more likely to continue down.
XLE & Weekly DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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