05/26/2011 Market Outlook (Could see back and forth ahead )


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SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE BACK AND FORTH AHEAD

The scenario I mentioned in 05/23 Market Outlook is in the playing as planned – 3 push down, initial rebound then back test the previous low and since it failed again the 2nd time so now the market is trying the opposite direction which is up. Now the problem is the rebound so far is not strong enough (strong but not enough I mean), considering 2 small statistics I’m about to mention below, so my guess is that we could see some back and forth ahead which essentially means it is still too early to say whether the low was in. That said, however, if gap up huge and rise huge tomorrow, then no argue, the mew high will be just a matter of time.

SPY60min

Here is the 2 small statistics I mentioned above:

  • 70% chances SPX will close below 05/24 close. I’ve mentioned this in 05/24 Market Outlook.
  • 69% chances SPX will close below today’s close. This is because today’s ISEE Equities Only Index is 282 which means we retailers are 2.8 times bullish than bearish. This is way too bullish of course, which according to the chart below, when ISEE Equities Only Index > 270, short at today’s close and cover at very first down day since 2006 (the inception of the ISEE Equities Only Index), you’d have 69% chances.

ISEEEquitiesOnlyIndexTooHigh

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX NOW IN 1352 TO 1381 WAVE 5 PRICE TARGET AREA, WATCH FOR POTENTIAL REVERSAL

Maintain what I said in 05/06 Market Outlook. Need pay attention to the possibility that wave 5 ends while primary wave 3 sharply down has started. Still just an attention, not even a warning though.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly UP  
QQQ & Weekly UP  
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN
XLE & Weekly DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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