05/31/2011 Market Outlook (Exhaustion Bar?)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: MAY SEE A PULLBACK OF SOME KIND AHEAD

One chart says all today, take a look yourself. See volume pattern illustrated in the chart below, today’s bar could be an exhaustion bar, so either 71% chances a red day tomorrow or 93% chances SPX will close below today’s close soon, and see red cycles, with no exception recently, the pullback may last for a few days. Also don’t forget all the recent statistics below:

I would be speechless if all those statistics fail eventually. That said, since nowadays the most impossible thing is actually the most possible thing, so frankly, I have no confidence at all for bears. Anyway, put emotion aside, I’ll, for now, accordingly, maintain what I blah blah in 05/27 Market Outlook – bullish, yes, but not without a fight. Let’s see…

ExhaustionBar

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAY SEE NEW HIGH, TARGETING SPX 1352 to 1381 AREA, BIG CORRECTION MAY FOLLOW AFTER THAT

See 05/27 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THE ENTIRE WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Day after Memorial Day, Dow up 8 of last 11.
  2. First trading day in June, Dow up 10 of last 12, 2002 –2.2%, 2008 –1.1%.
  3. Memorial Day week Dow down 7 of last 14, up 12 straight 1984-1995.

Also see 05/20 Market Outlook, Memorial Day week, positive 64% of the time.

For May seasonality day by day please refer 04/29 Market Outlook.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly UP  
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly UP *TOADV MA(10) too high plus bearish reversal bar, so pullback?
TLT & Weekly UP 3.0.1 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT 60 min): Could be an Ascending Triangle in the forming.
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly UP  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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