06/01/2011 Market Outlook (May rebound tomorrow, but more selling ahead)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND TOMORROW, BUT THE SELLING IS NOT OVER YET

As mentioned in today’s Trading Signals, statistically, the best cases there’re 76% chances a green day tomorrow. Find time to read it if you haven’t done so. I won’t bother to repeat the statistics here again. The chart below also argues at least a rebound tomorrow morning, but as per law of inertia, more likely the selling is not over yet, so trading wise, to sell bounce might not be a bad idea.

SPY60min

There’re three additional things I’d like you attention today:

  • 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 3 point validated trend line broken today. As long as the line could hold for tomorrow then a top of some kind should be confirmed. Frequent readers to this blog should know it’s a very reliable top signal. Well, I guess, after today’s sharp sell off, maybe too later to say this now.

CPCE

  • 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, INDU lower low ahead of SPX could mean that SPX will follow soon. Generally when the stock market is in a downtrend, the big caps should hold relatively well, because they’re the safest. If, however, big caps are leading down, then it could mean institutions are selling which obviously is not a good sign.

INDULeadsMarket

  • A little attention for Sentimentrader subscribers, the OEX Open Interest Ratio reading from Sentimentrader is wrong today. The chart below shows the official CBOE readings. If any of you have time, please notify Jason as I think this is a critical data. Besides, Sentimentrader nowadays is often wrong about the Rydex readings – put bearish reading into bullish signals or put bullish reading into bearish signals, please anyone have time, tell Jason too.

OEXOpenInterestRatio

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAY SEE NEW HIGH, TARGETING SPX 1352 to 1381 AREA, BIG CORRECTION MAY FOLLOW AFTER THAT

See 05/27 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THE ENTIRE WEEK

See 05/27 Market Outlook for more details.

The following seasonality chart is from Bespoke.

JuneSeasonality

The following seasonality chart is from Sentimentrader.

JuneSeasonalityDayByDay

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly UP  
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly UP
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly UP TOADV MA(10) too high plus bearish reversal bar, so pullback?
TLT & Weekly UP *Ascending Triangle breakout!
UUP & Weekly UP  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN
XLE & Weekly UP  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly UP  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.