06/03/2011 Market Outlook (Statistically Bearish for the Next 3 Weeks)


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SHORT-TERM: EXPECT REBOUND AS EARLY AS THE NEXT MONDAY

Three cents:

  1. Expect rebound as early as the next Monday.
  2. STATISTICALLY the odds for a green next week WAS only 25%. Also the next next and the next next next week won’t be pleasant as well. I’ll present my witness in the intermediate-term session below.
  3. Trading wise, the game to me is to sell bounce.

The chart below illustrated the usual bottoming pattern. There’re good chances the sell off before the Friday close was simply the retest of the previous low, or a little lower odds – lower low the next Monday morning before the rebound begins.

SPY60min

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, hollow red bar could mean a reversal.

SPYShortTerm

0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily), VIX may pullback. Especially, VIX had no higher high on Friday which if still VIX leads, then it should mean that SPY was bottomed.

VIXDaily

The statistics below should be clear that even down Monday again, whatever losses shall be recovered soon.

SPYBodyCompletelyBelowBBBottom

The last but not the least, CPC is way too high, so either green Monday or at least no more lower low.

CPC

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS

See charts below, should be clear enough. IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks, both argue for a not so bull friendly next 3 weeks. Especially the statistics for “short until IWM down 2 consecutive weeks”, it HAD astonishingly 100% winning rate.

IWMWeeklyBearishEngulfing
SPY5ConsecutiveRedWeeks

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

See 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly *DOWN  
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly *DOWN
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly *DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly *DOWN  
GLD & Weekly UP  
GDX & Weekly DOWN  
USO & Weekly DOWN
XLE & Weekly *DOWN  
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly UP  
XLB & Weekly *DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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