06/13/2011 Market Outlook (No Title)


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SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

No idea about tomorrow. There’re 2 kind of bottoms: either panic or rebound before panic then soon a 2nd leg down to revisit the previous low. So if huge rebound starting from tomorrow, since I see no panic here then most likely it’s a sell opportunity.

SPYShortTerm

Nothing else to say, all my ultimate weapons for watching the oversold condition I mentioned in 06/10 Market Outlook have not much change today so they’re still almost there. In addition, another very important indicator NYADV:NYDEC MA(10) is almost there too. So again, if rebound starts from today, I won’t be surprised, but if keeps selling off, it’s time for bulls to act self-restraint instead of panic.

NYADVtoNYDECRatio

P.S. The Intraday Comment Trailer seems worked, as I see more visits today. Thank you guys!

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday of Triple Witching Week, Down down 8 of last 13.
  2. June Triple Witching Day, Dow down 7 of last 12, average loss 0.5%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly DOWN Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200).
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57.
SSEC & Weekly DOWN Hammer on retest of the previous low, so may be bottomed?
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $17.69. TOADV MA(10) oversold though.
*1.5.9 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
DAX & Weekly DOWN
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN Breakout down trend line then kiss the trend line good-bye?
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming.
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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