06/16/2011 Market Outlook (Almost There)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: REBOUND THEN THE 3RD PUSH DOWN THEN BIGGER REBOUND

The 2 leg down pattern mentioned in yesterday’s report was fulfilled today, so now I should have a little credit to explain the pattern in more details: Take look at the chart again, watch carefully, well, the exact pattern should be 3 push down, shouldn’t it? So chances are there still is one more push down missing. Just before that, we’ll see a little bit stronger rebound first though.

SPY15min

The statistics about VIX closed above BB top for 2 consecutive days below also argues for rebound then pullback then rebound again.

VIXOutOfBB2Days

By the way, I see people saying that today’s VIX is repeating that of 03/16/2011. Well, possibly, but isn’t also possible to repeat that of 02/23/2011? Also, according to the law of inertial, since closed above BB top for 2 consecutive days means a strong up momentum, therefore chances are high that after pullback into BB, there’ll be another attempt to break above BB top again. So basically, I believe the rebound we’re going to have is of short-term nature, while the intermediate-term has not bottomed yet.

VIXDaily

If, unfortunately, another down day tomorrow, and if you have trapped longs, I think it might be the worst time to panic because all my ultimate weapons for watching oversold conditions are agian almost there now.

0.3.1 Normalized CPC

NormalizedCPC

0.3.2 Normalized CPCE

NormalizedCPCE

T2116

T2116

T2122

T2122

Net % of All Sentimentrader Indicators at Extremes

IndicatorAtExtremes

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

  1. Monday of Triple Witching Week, Down down 8 of last 13.
  2. June Triple Witching Day, Dow down 7 of last 12, average loss 0.5%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly DOWN  
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57.
SSEC & Weekly DOWN  
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $17.69. TOADV MA(10) oversold though.
DAX & Weekly DOWN
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN  
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming.
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top breakdown, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.