SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
Whether the rally today means something, it’s still hard to say. First of all, it’s very common to rebound to Fib 38.2%. Secondly, there’re chances today’s bar is an exhaustion bar. For detailed back test about the exhaustion bar please refer to 05/31 Market Outlook, which basically says there’ll be a pullback in a very short-term.
I know some would argue, confirmation after confirmation, once finally being convinced the low was in, it’d be too later. Well, trading wise, if keeps up or just small pullback tomorrow, I’d be on the bull side while sharp sell off, I’d stay with bears. This is for short-term trade of course (See today’s Trading Signals which clearly states that the short-term is up). For the intermediate-term, please also refer to today’s trading signals, officially, it’s still down.
Two additional things I’d like your attention today:
ChiOsc is way too high, so we could see some weakness tomorrow morning. Considering the extremely high NYADV I mentioned in today’s Trading Signals, so I’m now more inclined to believe we’ll see a pullback tomorrow.
ISEE Equities Only Index closed at 250 which is way too high, although it’s not as extreme as reading 300 but still it’s a rare reading that shows we retailers are way too bullish.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT WEEK
See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.
SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK
Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.
ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:
- 8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too high, so bottomed?
06/17 Market Outlook : Net % of all Sentimentrader ’s Indicators at Extreme is very bullish.
ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:
ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:
- 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
06/10 Market Outlook : 75% to 81% chances a green next week.
ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:
- 06/03 Market Outlook: IWM weekly Bearish Engulfing and SPY down 5 consecutive weeks were bearish for the next 3 weeks.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: