06/22/2011 Market Outlook (Key Day Tomorrow)


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SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

Key day tomorrow, if down sharply then most likely the March lows will be tested. See yesterday’s Market Outlook for reasons: exhaustion bar + Fib 38.2% + MA(20).

For now, despite the market down lot in AH, I think at least there’s one more push up left. The excuse is the law of inertia, a strong push up like what happened in the last few days normally won’t fail right away, usually today’s high will be revisited. Besides, see today’s Trading Signals, tomorrow is so called bullish Thursday. Again, I’ve been introducing patterns recently which I tried very hard to avoid in the past as it may be considered not objective, however since I introduced the intra-day comment, those who read a lot should now know that patterns are very effective in predicting the market movements. That said, patterns are not always correct, the real master is the market itself, so if sharp down tomorrow morning, I’d be on the bear side, period.

SPY60min

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT WEEK

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly DOWN  
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top, target $74.57.
SSEC & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target 2166.
EEM & Weekly DOWN *Chances of breakdown are higher. 
XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69.
DAX & Weekly DOWN
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN  
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN *Very small Bear Flag in the forming.
XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming.
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
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