06/23/2011 Market Outlook (Higher High Wanted)


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

Nothing new, all I wanted to say were already in today’s Trading Signals. The chart pattern is a typical Trading Reversal setup: Breakout downtrend line then pullback to test the previous low then sharp rebound. All bulls need the next are to breakout yesterday high forming a higher high (aka 1-2-3 formation) to confirm the low was in. So, all in all, bulls got the ball, but need the final score to win the game.

SPY60min

The bear’s only hope, also mentioned in today’s Trading Signals: ChiOsc is way too high. The chart below shows the recent 2 years when SPY 60 min ChiOsc was very high. Clearly we can see, far more down (red lines) or consolidation (blue lines) cases thereafter than simply up and up from here (green line). So officially, bull or bear, we still have to see tomorrow, although the feeling now seems the game was over for bears.

ChiOscHistoryWatch

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT WEEK

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH NEXT WEEK

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 11 in a row and 18 of last 20, average loss since 1990, 1.2%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly DOWN  
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top, target $74.57.
SSEC & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target 2166.
EEM & Weekly DOWN Chances of breakdown are higher. 
XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69.
DAX & Weekly DOWN
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN  
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming.
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.